Trader consensus heavily favors no additional country recognizing Somaliland by March 31, driven by its continued diplomatic isolation, with zero UN member states granting formal sovereignty acknowledgment despite decades of de facto independence. The January 2024 Ethiopia-Somaliland memorandum on Red Sea access sparked brief speculation but stopped short of recognition, as Addis Ababa officials clarified no such step occurred amid fierce backlash from Somalia and the African Union upholding Mogadishu's territorial claims. No credible announcements or negotiations have emerged since, reinforcing market pricing. Realistic shifts could stem from an abrupt Ethiopian reversal or unlikely moves by actors like the UAE, though timelines and geopolitical risks make these improbable before the deadline.