Trilateral peace talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the US remain paused indefinitely following Kremlin confirmation on March 19 amid Russia's spring offensive launch and the Iran conflict's escalation, driving trader consensus to 99.7% against a deal by March 31. Recent US-Ukraine meetings in Florida sought to revive negotiations, but fundamental gaps persist over territorial concessions in Donetsk and Ukraine's postwar security guarantees, with no direct Russia-Ukraine sessions scheduled before the deadline. Moscow's frontline advances and Kyiv's rejection of ceding land underscore entrenched positions, leaving scant time for resolution. Only an unforeseen diplomatic summit or major concession could shift odds, though historical patterns in prolonged conflicts suggest low likelihood.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertUnterzeichnet die Ukraine bis zum 31. März ein Friedensabkommen mit Russland?
Unterzeichnet die Ukraine bis zum 31. März ein Friedensabkommen mit Russland?
Ja
$375,300 Vol.
$375,300 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Ja
$375,300 Vol.
$375,300 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trilateral peace talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the US remain paused indefinitely following Kremlin confirmation on March 19 amid Russia's spring offensive launch and the Iran conflict's escalation, driving trader consensus to 99.7% against a deal by March 31. Recent US-Ukraine meetings in Florida sought to revive negotiations, but fundamental gaps persist over territorial concessions in Donetsk and Ukraine's postwar security guarantees, with no direct Russia-Ukraine sessions scheduled before the deadline. Moscow's frontline advances and Kyiv's rejection of ceding land underscore entrenched positions, leaving scant time for resolution. Only an unforeseen diplomatic summit or major concession could shift odds, though historical patterns in prolonged conflicts suggest low likelihood.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volumen
$375,300Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trilateral peace talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the US remain paused indefinitely following Kremlin confirmation on March 19 amid Russia's spring offensive launch and the Iran conflict's escalation, driving trader consensus to 99.7% against a deal by March 31. Recent US-Ukraine meetings in Florida sought to revive negotiations, but fundamental gaps persist over territorial concessions in Donetsk and Ukraine's postwar security guarantees, with no direct Russia-Ukraine sessions scheduled before the deadline. Moscow's frontline advances and Kyiv's rejection of ceding land underscore entrenched positions, leaving scant time for resolution. Only an unforeseen diplomatic summit or major concession could shift odds, though historical patterns in prolonged conflicts suggest low likelihood.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$375,300Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trilateral peace talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the US remain paused indefinitely following Kremlin confirmation on March 19 amid Russia's spring offensive launch and the Iran conflict's escalation, driving trader consensus to 99.7% against a deal by March 31. Recent US-Ukraine meetings in Florida sought to revive negotiations, but fundamental gaps persist over territorial concessions in Donetsk and Ukraine's postwar security guarantees, with no direct Russia-Ukraine sessions scheduled before the deadline. Moscow's frontline advances and Kyiv's rejection of ceding land underscore entrenched positions, leaving scant time for resolution. Only an unforeseen diplomatic summit or major concession could shift odds, though historical patterns in prolonged conflicts suggest low likelihood.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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