Trader consensus prices a near-certain no chance of a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30, driven by stalled U.S.-mediated trilateral talks demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk/Donbas—concessions President Zelenskyy rejected in recent interviews while prioritizing defense amid Russia's spring offensive. Moscow expressed hope for resumed negotiations on March 26 but only under favorable conditions, as massive drone and missile barrages hit Ukraine on March 23-24, signaling escalation rather than de-escalation. Zelenskyy's Gulf tour yielded defense pacts with Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar on March 27-28, underscoring Kyiv's focus on bolstering military capabilities over territorial compromise. With talks paused since mid-March amid Middle East distractions, entrenched positions on sovereignty and security guarantees leave little room for a breakthrough in the next three months absent major diplomatic shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertJa
$64,595 Vol.
$64,595 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Ja
$64,595 Vol.
$64,595 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a near-certain no chance of a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30, driven by stalled U.S.-mediated trilateral talks demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk/Donbas—concessions President Zelenskyy rejected in recent interviews while prioritizing defense amid Russia's spring offensive. Moscow expressed hope for resumed negotiations on March 26 but only under favorable conditions, as massive drone and missile barrages hit Ukraine on March 23-24, signaling escalation rather than de-escalation. Zelenskyy's Gulf tour yielded defense pacts with Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar on March 27-28, underscoring Kyiv's focus on bolstering military capabilities over territorial compromise. With talks paused since mid-March amid Middle East distractions, entrenched positions on sovereignty and security guarantees leave little room for a breakthrough in the next three months absent major diplomatic shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
Volumen
$64,595Enddatum
Jun 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices a near-certain no chance of a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30, driven by stalled U.S.-mediated trilateral talks demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk/Donbas—concessions President Zelenskyy rejected in recent interviews while prioritizing defense amid Russia's spring offensive. Moscow expressed hope for resumed negotiations on March 26 but only under favorable conditions, as massive drone and missile barrages hit Ukraine on March 23-24, signaling escalation rather than de-escalation. Zelenskyy's Gulf tour yielded defense pacts with Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar on March 27-28, underscoring Kyiv's focus on bolstering military capabilities over territorial compromise. With talks paused since mid-March amid Middle East distractions, entrenched positions on sovereignty and security guarantees leave little room for a breakthrough in the next three months absent major diplomatic shifts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$64,595Enddatum
Jun 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a near-certain no chance of a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30, driven by stalled U.S.-mediated trilateral talks demanding Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk/Donbas—concessions President Zelenskyy rejected in recent interviews while prioritizing defense amid Russia's spring offensive. Moscow expressed hope for resumed negotiations on March 26 but only under favorable conditions, as massive drone and missile barrages hit Ukraine on March 23-24, signaling escalation rather than de-escalation. Zelenskyy's Gulf tour yielded defense pacts with Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar on March 27-28, underscoring Kyiv's focus on bolstering military capabilities over territorial compromise. With talks paused since mid-March amid Middle East distractions, entrenched positions on sovereignty and security guarantees leave little room for a breakthrough in the next three months absent major diplomatic shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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