US-mediated peace talks between Ukraine and Russia have stalled since mid-March amid the escalating Iran war and irreconcilable demands, with Moscow insisting on Kyiv ceding all of Donbas—a condition Ukraine rejects and US officials like Marco Rubio deny endorsing for security guarantees—driving trader consensus to 90.5% "No" for a deal by June 30. Recent frontline clashes continue, as both sides claim territorial gains and Russia launches its spring offensive, underscoring persistent military escalations over diplomacy. While earlier Geneva sessions in February yielded no breakthroughs, upcoming US-Ukraine meetings in Florida narrowed some gaps on POW exchanges but not core issues like territorial integrity and postwar guarantees; a late diplomatic surge or ceasefire could shift odds, though entrenched positions make this unlikely.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertJa
$64,594 Vol.
$64,594 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Ja
$64,594 Vol.
$64,594 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. US-mediated peace talks between Ukraine and Russia have stalled since mid-March amid the escalating Iran war and irreconcilable demands, with Moscow insisting on Kyiv ceding all of Donbas—a condition Ukraine rejects and US officials like Marco Rubio deny endorsing for security guarantees—driving trader consensus to 90.5% "No" for a deal by June 30. Recent frontline clashes continue, as both sides claim territorial gains and Russia launches its spring offensive, underscoring persistent military escalations over diplomacy. While earlier Geneva sessions in February yielded no breakthroughs, upcoming US-Ukraine meetings in Florida narrowed some gaps on POW exchanges but not core issues like territorial integrity and postwar guarantees; a late diplomatic surge or ceasefire could shift odds, though entrenched positions make this unlikely.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
Volumen
$64,594Enddatum
Jun 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. US-mediated peace talks between Ukraine and Russia have stalled since mid-March amid the escalating Iran war and irreconcilable demands, with Moscow insisting on Kyiv ceding all of Donbas—a condition Ukraine rejects and US officials like Marco Rubio deny endorsing for security guarantees—driving trader consensus to 90.5% "No" for a deal by June 30. Recent frontline clashes continue, as both sides claim territorial gains and Russia launches its spring offensive, underscoring persistent military escalations over diplomacy. While earlier Geneva sessions in February yielded no breakthroughs, upcoming US-Ukraine meetings in Florida narrowed some gaps on POW exchanges but not core issues like territorial integrity and postwar guarantees; a late diplomatic surge or ceasefire could shift odds, though entrenched positions make this unlikely.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$64,594Enddatum
Jun 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-mediated peace talks between Ukraine and Russia have stalled since mid-March amid the escalating Iran war and irreconcilable demands, with Moscow insisting on Kyiv ceding all of Donbas—a condition Ukraine rejects and US officials like Marco Rubio deny endorsing for security guarantees—driving trader consensus to 90.5% "No" for a deal by June 30. Recent frontline clashes continue, as both sides claim territorial gains and Russia launches its spring offensive, underscoring persistent military escalations over diplomacy. While earlier Geneva sessions in February yielded no breakthroughs, upcoming US-Ukraine meetings in Florida narrowed some gaps on POW exchanges but not core issues like territorial integrity and postwar guarantees; a late diplomatic surge or ceasefire could shift odds, though entrenched positions make this unlikely.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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