US-Israeli strikes in June 2025 and early 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, extending the assessed breakout timeline to roughly nine to twelve months according to US intelligence. IAEA reporting confirms limited access to facilities and stockpiles, with no verification of resumed enrichment or weaponization activities. Recent assessments through May 2026 indicate no material change in Iran's capacity or intent to conduct a nuclear test, despite internal debates among hardline factions. Diplomatic channels remain open amid ceasefire talks, and structural barriers including damaged infrastructure and sanctions continue to constrain rapid advancement toward a test before 2027.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertIran-Atomtest vor 2027?
Iran-Atomtest vor 2027?
Ja
$196,569 Vol.
$196,569 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$196,569 Vol.
$196,569 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli strikes in June 2025 and early 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, extending the assessed breakout timeline to roughly nine to twelve months according to US intelligence. IAEA reporting confirms limited access to facilities and stockpiles, with no verification of resumed enrichment or weaponization activities. Recent assessments through May 2026 indicate no material change in Iran's capacity or intent to conduct a nuclear test, despite internal debates among hardline factions. Diplomatic channels remain open amid ceasefire talks, and structural barriers including damaged infrastructure and sanctions continue to constrain rapid advancement toward a test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$196,569Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli strikes in June 2025 and early 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, extending the assessed breakout timeline to roughly nine to twelve months according to US intelligence. IAEA reporting confirms limited access to facilities and stockpiles, with no verification of resumed enrichment or weaponization activities. Recent assessments through May 2026 indicate no material change in Iran's capacity or intent to conduct a nuclear test, despite internal debates among hardline factions. Diplomatic channels remain open amid ceasefire talks, and structural barriers including damaged infrastructure and sanctions continue to constrain rapid advancement toward a test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$196,569Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Israeli strikes in June 2025 and early 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, extending the assessed breakout timeline to roughly nine to twelve months according to US intelligence. IAEA reporting confirms limited access to facilities and stockpiles, with no verification of resumed enrichment or weaponization activities. Recent assessments through May 2026 indicate no material change in Iran's capacity or intent to conduct a nuclear test, despite internal debates among hardline factions. Diplomatic channels remain open amid ceasefire talks, and structural barriers including damaged infrastructure and sanctions continue to constrain rapid advancement toward a test before 2027.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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