US intelligence assessments as of early May 2026 confirm Iran's nuclear timeline remains at 9-12 months to produce a weapon, unchanged despite months of US and Israeli airstrikes on facilities like Natanz, with limited new damage and no evidence of accelerated weaponization or test preparations. IAEA reports from April note destroyed aboveground structures at pilot enrichment plants but no radiation increases, continued access to unaffected sites, and unverified stockpiles of 440kg highly enriched uranium buried under rubble. Ongoing military pressure, sanctions, and diplomatic signals toward a potential US-Iran deal reinforce trader consensus at 91.5% "No," though retrieval of uranium or de-escalation could shift odds before 2027 resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertIran-Atomtest vor 2027?
Iran-Atomtest vor 2027?
Ja
$189,905 Vol.
$189,905 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$189,905 Vol.
$189,905 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments as of early May 2026 confirm Iran's nuclear timeline remains at 9-12 months to produce a weapon, unchanged despite months of US and Israeli airstrikes on facilities like Natanz, with limited new damage and no evidence of accelerated weaponization or test preparations. IAEA reports from April note destroyed aboveground structures at pilot enrichment plants but no radiation increases, continued access to unaffected sites, and unverified stockpiles of 440kg highly enriched uranium buried under rubble. Ongoing military pressure, sanctions, and diplomatic signals toward a potential US-Iran deal reinforce trader consensus at 91.5% "No," though retrieval of uranium or de-escalation could shift odds before 2027 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$189,905Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments as of early May 2026 confirm Iran's nuclear timeline remains at 9-12 months to produce a weapon, unchanged despite months of US and Israeli airstrikes on facilities like Natanz, with limited new damage and no evidence of accelerated weaponization or test preparations. IAEA reports from April note destroyed aboveground structures at pilot enrichment plants but no radiation increases, continued access to unaffected sites, and unverified stockpiles of 440kg highly enriched uranium buried under rubble. Ongoing military pressure, sanctions, and diplomatic signals toward a potential US-Iran deal reinforce trader consensus at 91.5% "No," though retrieval of uranium or de-escalation could shift odds before 2027 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$189,905Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments as of early May 2026 confirm Iran's nuclear timeline remains at 9-12 months to produce a weapon, unchanged despite months of US and Israeli airstrikes on facilities like Natanz, with limited new damage and no evidence of accelerated weaponization or test preparations. IAEA reports from April note destroyed aboveground structures at pilot enrichment plants but no radiation increases, continued access to unaffected sites, and unverified stockpiles of 440kg highly enriched uranium buried under rubble. Ongoing military pressure, sanctions, and diplomatic signals toward a potential US-Iran deal reinforce trader consensus at 91.5% "No," though retrieval of uranium or de-escalation could shift odds before 2027 resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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