US and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, while limiting IAEA access and verification since mid-2025. Satellite imagery from September and October 2026 shows reconstruction and renewed activity at sites like Minzadehei and Pickaxe Mountain, yet US assessments indicate no enrichment restart and roughly one year or longer needed for a weapon if Iran commits resources. The IAEA's September 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council and stalled diplomacy further constrain timelines. Traders price a nuclear test before 2027 at just 4% probability given these setbacks. Late diplomatic breakthroughs, undetected tunnel progress, or a rapid policy shift could still alter outcomes before the end of 2026.