**Recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, collapsing tunnel entrances and rendering most declared facilities inoperable or inaccessible.** Large stockpiles of 60% highly enriched uranium remain bottled up under rubble or in sealed tunnels, with the IAEA unable to verify quantities, locations, or composition since access was curtailed. No active uranium enrichment is occurring at declared sites, and satellite imagery shows no signs of weaponization or test preparation. A short-lived June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding on down-blending and status quo commitments collapsed by July, leaving ongoing diplomatic friction, vetoes at the UN Security Council, and threats of further strikes. Iran has pursued reconstruction at sites like Parchin (Taleghan 2) and construction at the deeply buried Pickaxe Mountain complex near Natanz, but these efforts focus on protection and potential future capacity rather than near-term testing capability. IAEA reports and independent analyses confirm the program is largely dormant, with significant technical and logistical barriers to assembling and testing a nuclear device before the end of 2026. Traders appear to view these accumulated setbacks, combined with persistent international monitoring pressure and the absence of breakout indicators, as making a nuclear test highly improbable in the remaining timeframe.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
5% Chance
$262,022 Vol.
$262,022 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
5% Chance
$262,022 Vol.
$262,022 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, collapsing tunnel entrances and rendering most declared facilities inoperable or inaccessible.** Large stockpiles of 60% highly enriched uranium remain bottled up under rubble or in sealed tunnels, with the IAEA unable to verify quantities, locations, or composition since access was curtailed. No active uranium enrichment is occurring at declared sites, and satellite imagery shows no signs of weaponization or test preparation.
A short-lived June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding on down-blending and status quo commitments collapsed by July, leaving ongoing diplomatic friction, vetoes at the UN Security Council, and threats of further strikes. Iran has pursued reconstruction at sites like Parchin (Taleghan 2) and construction at the deeply buried Pickaxe Mountain complex near Natanz, but these efforts focus on protection and potential future capacity rather than near-term testing capability. IAEA reports and independent analyses confirm the program is largely dormant, with significant technical and logistical barriers to assembling and testing a nuclear device before the end of 2026.
Traders appear to view these accumulated setbacks, combined with persistent international monitoring pressure and the absence of breakout indicators, as making a nuclear test highly improbable in the remaining timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$262,022Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, collapsing tunnel entrances and rendering most declared facilities inoperable or inaccessible.** Large stockpiles of 60% highly enriched uranium remain bottled up under rubble or in sealed tunnels, with the IAEA unable to verify quantities, locations, or composition since access was curtailed. No active uranium enrichment is occurring at declared sites, and satellite imagery shows no signs of weaponization or test preparation.
A short-lived June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding on down-blending and status quo commitments collapsed by July, leaving ongoing diplomatic friction, vetoes at the UN Security Council, and threats of further strikes. Iran has pursued reconstruction at sites like Parchin (Taleghan 2) and construction at the deeply buried Pickaxe Mountain complex near Natanz, but these efforts focus on protection and potential future capacity rather than near-term testing capability. IAEA reports and independent analyses confirm the program is largely dormant, with significant technical and logistical barriers to assembling and testing a nuclear device before the end of 2026.
Traders appear to view these accumulated setbacks, combined with persistent international monitoring pressure and the absence of breakout indicators, as making a nuclear test highly improbable in the remaining timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$262,022Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...**Recent U.S. and Israeli military strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, collapsing tunnel entrances and rendering most declared facilities inoperable or inaccessible.** Large stockpiles of 60% highly enriched uranium remain bottled up under rubble or in sealed tunnels, with the IAEA unable to verify quantities, locations, or composition since access was curtailed. No active uranium enrichment is occurring at declared sites, and satellite imagery shows no signs of weaponization or test preparation. A short-lived June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding on down-blending and status quo commitments collapsed by July, leaving ongoing diplomatic friction, vetoes at the UN Security Council, and threats of further strikes. Iran has pursued reconstruction at sites like Parchin (Taleghan 2) and construction at the deeply buried Pickaxe Mountain complex near Natanz, but these efforts focus on protection and potential future capacity rather than near-term testing capability. IAEA reports and independent analyses confirm the program is largely dormant, with significant technical and logistical barriers to assembling and testing a nuclear device before the end of 2026. Traders appear to view these accumulated setbacks, combined with persistent international monitoring pressure and the absence of breakout indicators, as making a nuclear test highly improbable in the remaining timeframe.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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