US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, with IAEA inspectors subsequently withdrawn from affected facilities. US intelligence assessments through March 2026 and IAEA Director General statements in early 2026 indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment or pursued a structured weaponization program, leaving stockpiles of near-weapons-grade material inaccessible under rubble. Ongoing diplomatic negotiations between Tehran and Washington, focused on sanctions relief and security guarantees, further reduce incentives for rapid escalation toward a test. These factors sustain trader consensus that a nuclear detonation is unlikely before 2027 absent major undetected breakthroughs in weapon design or delivery systems.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertIran-Atomtest vor 2027?
Iran-Atomtest vor 2027?
Ja
$202,508 Vol.
$202,508 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$202,508 Vol.
$202,508 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, with IAEA inspectors subsequently withdrawn from affected facilities. US intelligence assessments through March 2026 and IAEA Director General statements in early 2026 indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment or pursued a structured weaponization program, leaving stockpiles of near-weapons-grade material inaccessible under rubble. Ongoing diplomatic negotiations between Tehran and Washington, focused on sanctions relief and security guarantees, further reduce incentives for rapid escalation toward a test. These factors sustain trader consensus that a nuclear detonation is unlikely before 2027 absent major undetected breakthroughs in weapon design or delivery systems.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$202,508Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, with IAEA inspectors subsequently withdrawn from affected facilities. US intelligence assessments through March 2026 and IAEA Director General statements in early 2026 indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment or pursued a structured weaponization program, leaving stockpiles of near-weapons-grade material inaccessible under rubble. Ongoing diplomatic negotiations between Tehran and Washington, focused on sanctions relief and security guarantees, further reduce incentives for rapid escalation toward a test. These factors sustain trader consensus that a nuclear detonation is unlikely before 2027 absent major undetected breakthroughs in weapon design or delivery systems.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$202,508Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, with IAEA inspectors subsequently withdrawn from affected facilities. US intelligence assessments through March 2026 and IAEA Director General statements in early 2026 indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment or pursued a structured weaponization program, leaving stockpiles of near-weapons-grade material inaccessible under rubble. Ongoing diplomatic negotiations between Tehran and Washington, focused on sanctions relief and security guarantees, further reduce incentives for rapid escalation toward a test. These factors sustain trader consensus that a nuclear detonation is unlikely before 2027 absent major undetected breakthroughs in weapon design or delivery systems.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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