Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization-related facilities, extending official breakout timelines for sufficient fissile material to nine-to-twelve months or longer according to U.S. intelligence assessments. IAEA reporting confirms no resumption of enrichment activity, limited inspector access to affected sites, and no evidence of preparations for a nuclear explosive test through late May 2026. Ongoing diplomatic contacts on ceasefire and nuclear issues have further reduced incentives for detectable testing. Trader consensus at 92.5% on no test before 2027 reflects these verified setbacks, though rapid reconstruction or a policy shift could still alter the timeline before December 2026.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertIran-Atomtest vor 2027?
Iran-Atomtest vor 2027?
Ja
$196,569 Vol.
$196,569 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$196,569 Vol.
$196,569 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization-related facilities, extending official breakout timelines for sufficient fissile material to nine-to-twelve months or longer according to U.S. intelligence assessments. IAEA reporting confirms no resumption of enrichment activity, limited inspector access to affected sites, and no evidence of preparations for a nuclear explosive test through late May 2026. Ongoing diplomatic contacts on ceasefire and nuclear issues have further reduced incentives for detectable testing. Trader consensus at 92.5% on no test before 2027 reflects these verified setbacks, though rapid reconstruction or a policy shift could still alter the timeline before December 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volumen
$196,569Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization-related facilities, extending official breakout timelines for sufficient fissile material to nine-to-twelve months or longer according to U.S. intelligence assessments. IAEA reporting confirms no resumption of enrichment activity, limited inspector access to affected sites, and no evidence of preparations for a nuclear explosive test through late May 2026. Ongoing diplomatic contacts on ceasefire and nuclear issues have further reduced incentives for detectable testing. Trader consensus at 92.5% on no test before 2027 reflects these verified setbacks, though rapid reconstruction or a policy shift could still alter the timeline before December 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$196,569Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization-related facilities, extending official breakout timelines for sufficient fissile material to nine-to-twelve months or longer according to U.S. intelligence assessments. IAEA reporting confirms no resumption of enrichment activity, limited inspector access to affected sites, and no evidence of preparations for a nuclear explosive test through late May 2026. Ongoing diplomatic contacts on ceasefire and nuclear issues have further reduced incentives for detectable testing. Trader consensus at 92.5% on no test before 2027 reflects these verified setbacks, though rapid reconstruction or a policy shift could still alter the timeline before December 2026.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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