Strong nonproliferation commitments under the NPT, combined with US extended deterrence guarantees and rigorous IAEA monitoring, underpin traders' 96.4% consensus that no US ally will acquire nuclear weapons before 2027. Recent US civil nuclear cooperation pacts with South Korea and Saudi Arabia have advanced uranium enrichment pathways for energy programs, yet both nations have reaffirmed official non-weapons policies, with South Korea targeting nuclear-powered submarines only in the mid-2030s. Technical hurdles—including fissile material production, weaponization, and credible delivery systems—require multiple years even after a political decision. Public debates in Seoul and Riyadh reflect security concerns over North Korea and Iran, but no ally has initiated a verified weapons program. Late developments such as major regional escalation or abrupt policy reversals could theoretically compress timelines, though structural and diplomatic barriers make completion before the deadline improbable.