**No at 94.8% reflects the steep technical, legal, and political barriers to any US ally acquiring independent operational control of a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026.** Allies such as South Korea and Japan face NPT obligations, IAEA safeguards, and bilateral US agreements that restrict enrichment and reprocessing, while public and elite majorities continue to favor extended deterrence over breakout. Recent trilateral statements have reaffirmed nonproliferation commitments and civil nuclear cooperation, with debates in Seoul and Tokyo focusing on sharing arrangements or submarine propulsion rather than weapons programs. No ally has initiated the multi-year process required for credible acquisition, and historical patterns show proliferation timelines far exceed the remaining window. Trader consensus prices these constraints as dominant.