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Welt·Trump

Wird ein US-Verbündeter vor 2027 eine Atombombe bekommen?

icon for Wird ein US-Verbündeter vor 2027 eine Atombombe bekommen?
Welt·Trump

Wird ein US-Verbündeter vor 2027 eine Atombombe bekommen?

Dez. 31

Dez. 31

Ja

10% Chance
Polymarket

$51,591 Vol.

Ja

10% Chance
Polymarket

$51,591 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The trader consensus favoring a low probability of any US ally acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027 stems from longstanding US extended deterrence commitments, the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty framework, and absence of concrete weaponization programs among key allies. Discussions in South Korea and Japan over independent capabilities have intensified amid regional threats, yet both governments continue to emphasize alliance reliance and face significant diplomatic, sanctions, and technical barriers that would extend timelines well beyond the resolution date. Saudi Arabia’s ongoing nuclear energy talks with Washington focus on enrichment for civilian purposes under safeguards, without evidence of imminent weapons pursuit. No official announcements, legislative actions, or verified developments in the past 30 days indicate a shift toward new acquisition by any ally.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Volumen
$51,591
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The trader consensus favoring a low probability of any US ally acquiring nuclear weapons before 2027 stems from longstanding US extended deterrence commitments, the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty framework, and absence of concrete weaponization programs among key allies. Discussions in South Korea and Japan over independent capabilities have intensified amid regional threats, yet both governments continue to emphasize alliance reliance and face significant diplomatic, sanctions, and technical barriers that would extend timelines well beyond the resolution date. Saudi Arabia’s ongoing nuclear energy talks with Washington focus on enrichment for civilian purposes under safeguards, without evidence of imminent weapons pursuit. No official announcements, legislative actions, or verified developments in the past 30 days indicate a shift toward new acquisition by any ally.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Volumen
$51,591
Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

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