President-elect Donald Trump's path to inauguration on January 20 remains unimpeded after his November 2024 general election victory, driving trader consensus to price "No" at 98%—reflecting near-certainty he will remain in office through April 30. Recent developments, including cabinet nominations like Pete Hegseth for Defense and routine transition meetings with outgoing President Biden, underscore operational stability amid Republican majorities in the House and Senate, which forestall impeachment or conviction risks. No public statements suggest resignation intentions, and post-election dismissals of key legal cases have cleared hurdles. While unforeseen health events, invocation of the 25th Amendment, or extraordinary scandals could theoretically shift dynamics, historical precedents for early presidential exits are exceedingly rare absent acute crises.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertJa
NEW
$19,567 Vol.
NEW
$19,567 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Ja
NEW
$19,567 Vol.
NEW
$19,567 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.President-elect Donald Trump's path to inauguration on January 20 remains unimpeded after his November 2024 general election victory, driving trader consensus to price "No" at 98%—reflecting near-certainty he will remain in office through April 30. Recent developments, including cabinet nominations like Pete Hegseth for Defense and routine transition meetings with outgoing President Biden, underscore operational stability amid Republican majorities in the House and Senate, which forestall impeachment or conviction risks. No public statements suggest resignation intentions, and post-election dismissals of key legal cases have cleared hurdles. While unforeseen health events, invocation of the 25th Amendment, or extraordinary scandals could theoretically shift dynamics, historical precedents for early presidential exits are exceedingly rare absent acute crises.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 26, 2026, 2:46 PM ET
Volumen
$19,567Enddatum
Apr 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 26, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.President-elect Donald Trump's path to inauguration on January 20 remains unimpeded after his November 2024 general election victory, driving trader consensus to price "No" at 98%—reflecting near-certainty he will remain in office through April 30. Recent developments, including cabinet nominations like Pete Hegseth for Defense and routine transition meetings with outgoing President Biden, underscore operational stability amid Republican majorities in the House and Senate, which forestall impeachment or conviction risks. No public statements suggest resignation intentions, and post-election dismissals of key legal cases have cleared hurdles. While unforeseen health events, invocation of the 25th Amendment, or extraordinary scandals could theoretically shift dynamics, historical precedents for early presidential exits are exceedingly rare absent acute crises.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$19,567Enddatum
Apr 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 26, 2026, 2:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President-elect Donald Trump's path to inauguration on January 20 remains unimpeded after his November 2024 general election victory, driving trader consensus to price "No" at 98%—reflecting near-certainty he will remain in office through April 30. Recent developments, including cabinet nominations like Pete Hegseth for Defense and routine transition meetings with outgoing President Biden, underscore operational stability amid Republican majorities in the House and Senate, which forestall impeachment or conviction risks. No public statements suggest resignation intentions, and post-election dismissals of key legal cases have cleared hurdles. While unforeseen health events, invocation of the 25th Amendment, or extraordinary scandals could theoretically shift dynamics, historical precedents for early presidential exits are exceedingly rare absent acute crises.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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