Trader consensus on Polymarket centers around 280-339 tweets by Elon Musk during March 27-April 3, 2026, with 300-319 and 320-339 each at 11.5% implied probability, capturing over 30% combined as leading options in a fragmented field. This reflects Musk's consistent high-volume X activity, averaging 40-50 posts daily in recent months amid Tesla updates, SpaceX milestones, political jabs, and Grok AI interactions—patterns tracked via public analytics showing weekly totals often exceeding 300. Key differentiators include volatility from viral controversies or reply chains boosting upper ranges, versus quieter travel or focus shifts pulling toward 280s; historical data shows weekend spikes, but no confirmed 2026 events yet temper extremes above 400 (under 8%). Tight clustering signals trader caution on his unpredictable cultural force.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert300-319 12%
320-339 12%
280-299 11%
340-359 11%
$324,815 Vol.
$324,815 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
4%
220-239
6%
240-259
6%
260-279
9%
280-299
11%
300-319
12%
320-339
12%
340-359
11%
360-379
10%
380-399
8%
400-419
4%
420-439
3%
440-459
2%
460-479
1%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
300-319 12%
320-339 12%
280-299 11%
340-359 11%
$324,815 Vol.
$324,815 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
<1%
140-159
1%
160-179
1%
180-199
2%
200-219
4%
220-239
6%
240-259
6%
260-279
9%
280-299
11%
300-319
12%
320-339
12%
340-359
11%
360-379
10%
380-399
8%
400-419
4%
420-439
3%
440-459
2%
460-479
1%
480-499
1%
500-519
1%
520-539
1%
540-559
1%
560-579
<1%
580+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket centers around 280-339 tweets by Elon Musk during March 27-April 3, 2026, with 300-319 and 320-339 each at 11.5% implied probability, capturing over 30% combined as leading options in a fragmented field. This reflects Musk's consistent high-volume X activity, averaging 40-50 posts daily in recent months amid Tesla updates, SpaceX milestones, political jabs, and Grok AI interactions—patterns tracked via public analytics showing weekly totals often exceeding 300. Key differentiators include volatility from viral controversies or reply chains boosting upper ranges, versus quieter travel or focus shifts pulling toward 280s; historical data shows weekend spikes, but no confirmed 2026 events yet temper extremes above 400 (under 8%). Tight clustering signals trader caution on his unpredictable cultural force.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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