Maryland’s 4th congressional district remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the House, anchored by a D+40 partisan lean and consistent double-digit margins for the incumbent. Glenn Ivey, who won reelection in 2024 with 88 percent of the vote, faces only token primary opposition ahead of the June 23 contest and no credible Republican challenger in the November general election. The district’s suburban Prince George’s County demographics and lack of competitive GOP infrastructure have produced trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A realistic shift would require an unprecedented national environment, an unexpected primary upset that weakens the nominee, or late developments such as a major scandal or health event affecting the frontrunner.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertMD-04 Wahlsieger
MD-04 Wahlsieger
$24,585 Vol.
$24,585 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
93%
Republikanische Partei
5%
$24,585 Vol.
$24,585 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$8,057 Vol.
93%
Republikanische Partei
$16,528 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 4th congressional district remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the House, anchored by a D+40 partisan lean and consistent double-digit margins for the incumbent. Glenn Ivey, who won reelection in 2024 with 88 percent of the vote, faces only token primary opposition ahead of the June 23 contest and no credible Republican challenger in the November general election. The district’s suburban Prince George’s County demographics and lack of competitive GOP infrastructure have produced trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A realistic shift would require an unprecedented national environment, an unexpected primary upset that weakens the nominee, or late developments such as a major scandal or health event affecting the frontrunner.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$24,585Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 4th congressional district remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the House, anchored by a D+40 partisan lean and consistent double-digit margins for the incumbent. Glenn Ivey, who won reelection in 2024 with 88 percent of the vote, faces only token primary opposition ahead of the June 23 contest and no credible Republican challenger in the November general election. The district’s suburban Prince George’s County demographics and lack of competitive GOP infrastructure have produced trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A realistic shift would require an unprecedented national environment, an unexpected primary upset that weakens the nominee, or late developments such as a major scandal or health event affecting the frontrunner.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$24,585Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland’s 4th congressional district remains one of the most reliably Democratic seats in the House, anchored by a D+40 partisan lean and consistent double-digit margins for the incumbent. Glenn Ivey, who won reelection in 2024 with 88 percent of the vote, faces only token primary opposition ahead of the June 23 contest and no credible Republican challenger in the November general election. The district’s suburban Prince George’s County demographics and lack of competitive GOP infrastructure have produced trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A realistic shift would require an unprecedented national environment, an unexpected primary upset that weakens the nominee, or late developments such as a major scandal or health event affecting the frontrunner.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen