Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination for Kentucky's 4th congressional district in the May 19 primary, defeating eight-term incumbent Thomas Massie by roughly ten points with 55 percent of the vote to Massie's 45 percent. Trader consensus on a Gallrein margin exceeding nine points reflects this decisive certified outcome, driven by strong Gallrein performance in northern Kentucky counties and Oldham County, combined with President Trump's endorsement of the former Navy SEAL challenger. Massie's history of opposing Trump-aligned positions contributed to the result in a race that set spending records. A narrower margin or reversal remains improbable absent successful legal challenges or major irregularities in the vote count, though certification processes and any formal recounts could still influence final market resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertGallrein 9%+ 99.0%
Gallrein 6-9% <1%
Gallrein 3-6% <1%
Gallrein <3% <1%
$192,331 Vol.
$192,331 Vol.
19. Mai 2026
Gallrein 9%+
99%
Gallrein 6-9%
1%
Gallrein 3-6%
<1%
Gallrein <3%
<1%
Massie <3%
<1%
Massie 3-6%
<1%
Massie 6%+
<1%
Other
<1%
Gallrein 9%+ 99.0%
Gallrein 6-9% <1%
Gallrein 3-6% <1%
Gallrein <3% <1%
$192,331 Vol.
$192,331 Vol.
19. Mai 2026
Gallrein 9%+
$124,473 Vol.
99%
Gallrein 6-9%
$11,672 Vol.
1%
Gallrein 3-6%
$7,618 Vol.
<1%
Gallrein <3%
$5,574 Vol.
<1%
Massie <3%
$9,852 Vol.
<1%
Massie 3-6%
$18,187 Vol.
<1%
Massie 6%+
$13,866 Vol.
<1%
Other
$1,089 Vol.
<1%
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination for Kentucky's 4th congressional district in the May 19 primary, defeating eight-term incumbent Thomas Massie by roughly ten points with 55 percent of the vote to Massie's 45 percent. Trader consensus on a Gallrein margin exceeding nine points reflects this decisive certified outcome, driven by strong Gallrein performance in northern Kentucky counties and Oldham County, combined with President Trump's endorsement of the former Navy SEAL challenger. Massie's history of opposing Trump-aligned positions contributed to the result in a race that set spending records. A narrower margin or reversal remains improbable absent successful legal challenges or major irregularities in the vote count, though certification processes and any formal recounts could still influence final market resolution.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Markt eröffnet: May 18, 2026, 11:12 AM ET
Volumen
$192,331Enddatum
19. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 18, 2026, 11:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination for Kentucky's 4th congressional district in the May 19 primary, defeating eight-term incumbent Thomas Massie by roughly ten points with 55 percent of the vote to Massie's 45 percent. Trader consensus on a Gallrein margin exceeding nine points reflects this decisive certified outcome, driven by strong Gallrein performance in northern Kentucky counties and Oldham County, combined with President Trump's endorsement of the former Navy SEAL challenger. Massie's history of opposing Trump-aligned positions contributed to the result in a race that set spending records. A narrower margin or reversal remains improbable absent successful legal challenges or major irregularities in the vote count, though certification processes and any formal recounts could still influence final market resolution.
The KY-04 Republican Primary is currently scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be official results from the Kentucky State Board of Elections and/or the Kentucky Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$192,331Enddatum
19. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 18, 2026, 11:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination for Kentucky's 4th congressional district in the May 19 primary, defeating eight-term incumbent Thomas Massie by roughly ten points with 55 percent of the vote to Massie's 45 percent. Trader consensus on a Gallrein margin exceeding nine points reflects this decisive certified outcome, driven by strong Gallrein performance in northern Kentucky counties and Oldham County, combined with President Trump's endorsement of the former Navy SEAL challenger. Massie's history of opposing Trump-aligned positions contributed to the result in a race that set spending records. A narrower margin or reversal remains improbable absent successful legal challenges or major irregularities in the vote count, though certification processes and any formal recounts could still influence final market resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen