New York’s 12th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+33, reflecting consistent Democratic dominance in presidential and House voting. Incumbent Jerry Nadler’s retirement created an open seat, drawing a crowded Democratic primary field ahead of the June 23 contest, yet forecasters rate the general election Solid Democratic. Multiple Republican primary candidates have emerged with limited visibility or resources in the Manhattan-based district. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic nominee aligns with these structural factors; a Republican victory would require an unprecedented shift in voter turnout or national conditions between now and November. Late developments such as primary consolidation or external events could still alter the final margin.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNY-12 Wahlsieger
NY-12 Wahlsieger
$18,739 Vol.
$18,739 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
95%
Republikanische Partei
6%
$18,739 Vol.
$18,739 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$16,248 Vol.
95%
Republikanische Partei
$2,490 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 12th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+33, reflecting consistent Democratic dominance in presidential and House voting. Incumbent Jerry Nadler’s retirement created an open seat, drawing a crowded Democratic primary field ahead of the June 23 contest, yet forecasters rate the general election Solid Democratic. Multiple Republican primary candidates have emerged with limited visibility or resources in the Manhattan-based district. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic nominee aligns with these structural factors; a Republican victory would require an unprecedented shift in voter turnout or national conditions between now and November. Late developments such as primary consolidation or external events could still alter the final margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$18,739Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 12th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+33, reflecting consistent Democratic dominance in presidential and House voting. Incumbent Jerry Nadler’s retirement created an open seat, drawing a crowded Democratic primary field ahead of the June 23 contest, yet forecasters rate the general election Solid Democratic. Multiple Republican primary candidates have emerged with limited visibility or resources in the Manhattan-based district. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic nominee aligns with these structural factors; a Republican victory would require an unprecedented shift in voter turnout or national conditions between now and November. Late developments such as primary consolidation or external events could still alter the final margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$18,739Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York’s 12th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+33, reflecting consistent Democratic dominance in presidential and House voting. Incumbent Jerry Nadler’s retirement created an open seat, drawing a crowded Democratic primary field ahead of the June 23 contest, yet forecasters rate the general election Solid Democratic. Multiple Republican primary candidates have emerged with limited visibility or resources in the Manhattan-based district. Trader consensus at 94.5% for the Democratic nominee aligns with these structural factors; a Republican victory would require an unprecedented shift in voter turnout or national conditions between now and November. Late developments such as primary consolidation or external events could still alter the final margin.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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