New York’s 12th congressional district, encompassing much of Manhattan, maintains a strong Democratic lean reflected in its D+33 partisan voter index and the incumbent’s 80.6 percent victory in 2024. Longtime Representative Jerry Nadler’s retirement has opened the seat, prompting a crowded Democratic primary scheduled for June 23 with multiple declared candidates. The Republican primary field remains limited, and historical voting patterns plus the district’s urban demographics continue to favor the Democratic nominee in November. Trader consensus on a Democratic win aligns with these structural factors, though the outcome could shift only in the event of an unusually weak Democratic nominee or a broader national Republican surge that has not materialized in recent cycles.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNY-12 Wahlsieger
NY-12 Wahlsieger
$17,488 Vol.
$17,488 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
94%
Republikanische Partei
6%
$17,488 Vol.
$17,488 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$14,997 Vol.
94%
Republikanische Partei
$2,490 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 12th congressional district, encompassing much of Manhattan, maintains a strong Democratic lean reflected in its D+33 partisan voter index and the incumbent’s 80.6 percent victory in 2024. Longtime Representative Jerry Nadler’s retirement has opened the seat, prompting a crowded Democratic primary scheduled for June 23 with multiple declared candidates. The Republican primary field remains limited, and historical voting patterns plus the district’s urban demographics continue to favor the Democratic nominee in November. Trader consensus on a Democratic win aligns with these structural factors, though the outcome could shift only in the event of an unusually weak Democratic nominee or a broader national Republican surge that has not materialized in recent cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$17,488Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 12th congressional district, encompassing much of Manhattan, maintains a strong Democratic lean reflected in its D+33 partisan voter index and the incumbent’s 80.6 percent victory in 2024. Longtime Representative Jerry Nadler’s retirement has opened the seat, prompting a crowded Democratic primary scheduled for June 23 with multiple declared candidates. The Republican primary field remains limited, and historical voting patterns plus the district’s urban demographics continue to favor the Democratic nominee in November. Trader consensus on a Democratic win aligns with these structural factors, though the outcome could shift only in the event of an unusually weak Democratic nominee or a broader national Republican surge that has not materialized in recent cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$17,488Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York’s 12th congressional district, encompassing much of Manhattan, maintains a strong Democratic lean reflected in its D+33 partisan voter index and the incumbent’s 80.6 percent victory in 2024. Longtime Representative Jerry Nadler’s retirement has opened the seat, prompting a crowded Democratic primary scheduled for June 23 with multiple declared candidates. The Republican primary field remains limited, and historical voting patterns plus the district’s urban demographics continue to favor the Democratic nominee in November. Trader consensus on a Democratic win aligns with these structural factors, though the outcome could shift only in the event of an unusually weak Democratic nominee or a broader national Republican surge that has not materialized in recent cycles.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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