Kentucky's 4th Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat based on its partisan voting index and historical election results. The May 19 primary produced Republican nominee Ed Gallrein after he defeated incumbent Thomas Massie with support from substantial outside spending and a Trump endorsement. Democrat Melissa Strange advanced unopposed in substance on her side. Traders assign the Republican Party a 90.5% implied probability of winning the November 3 general election because the district's electoral math and base turnout patterns have consistently delivered large margins for Republican candidates. A shift would require an unusual national environment, candidate-specific developments, or turnout anomalies not evident in current data.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertKY-04 Wahlsieger
KY-04 Wahlsieger
$27,744 Vol.
$27,744 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
91%
Demokratische Partei
11%
$27,744 Vol.
$27,744 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
$21,753 Vol.
91%
Demokratische Partei
$5,990 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky's 4th Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat based on its partisan voting index and historical election results. The May 19 primary produced Republican nominee Ed Gallrein after he defeated incumbent Thomas Massie with support from substantial outside spending and a Trump endorsement. Democrat Melissa Strange advanced unopposed in substance on her side. Traders assign the Republican Party a 90.5% implied probability of winning the November 3 general election because the district's electoral math and base turnout patterns have consistently delivered large margins for Republican candidates. A shift would require an unusual national environment, candidate-specific developments, or turnout anomalies not evident in current data.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$27,744Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky's 4th Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat based on its partisan voting index and historical election results. The May 19 primary produced Republican nominee Ed Gallrein after he defeated incumbent Thomas Massie with support from substantial outside spending and a Trump endorsement. Democrat Melissa Strange advanced unopposed in substance on her side. Traders assign the Republican Party a 90.5% implied probability of winning the November 3 general election because the district's electoral math and base turnout patterns have consistently delivered large margins for Republican candidates. A shift would require an unusual national environment, candidate-specific developments, or turnout anomalies not evident in current data.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$27,744Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kentucky's 4th Congressional District remains a solidly Republican seat based on its partisan voting index and historical election results. The May 19 primary produced Republican nominee Ed Gallrein after he defeated incumbent Thomas Massie with support from substantial outside spending and a Trump endorsement. Democrat Melissa Strange advanced unopposed in substance on her side. Traders assign the Republican Party a 90.5% implied probability of winning the November 3 general election because the district's electoral math and base turnout patterns have consistently delivered large margins for Republican candidates. A shift would require an unusual national environment, candidate-specific developments, or turnout anomalies not evident in current data.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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