Redistricting merged two longtime Republican incumbents into California's 40th congressional district for the 2026 cycle, pitting Ken Calvert against Young Kim in a top-two primary on June 2. Calvert's stronger primary performance, with roughly 35 percent of the vote compared to Kim's 21 percent, advanced both to the November general election while positioning him as the frontrunner among traders. Factors include Calvert's extended tenure, role chairing the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense, and support from outside spending groups, contrasted with Kim's fundraising edge from prior cycles. The solidly Republican district and absence of Democratic contenders in the general further shape the implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing. No major late developments have altered this positioning since the primary.