South Carolina's 4th congressional district maintains a durable Republican lean, reflected in Donald Trump's 16.5-point margin there in 2024 and consistent GOP control since the early 1990s. Incumbent William Timmons secured renomination in the June 2026 Republican primary with nearly 66 percent of the vote against two challengers, while Democrat Courtney McClain advanced unopposed. Nonpartisan forecasts rate the seat solid Republican, citing the district's Partisan Voter Index and limited crossover appeal for Democratic candidates. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the absence of recent polling shifts, fundraising gaps, or national tailwinds that might compress the margin. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong Democratic turnout surge tied to broader midterm dynamics could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSC-04 House Election Winner
SC-04 House Election Winner
$47,619 Vol.
$47,619 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
William Timmons (R)
95%
Courtney McClain (D)
6%
$47,619 Vol.
$47,619 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
William Timmons (R)
$22,879 Vol.
95%
Courtney McClain (D)
$24,740 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Carolina's 4th congressional district maintains a durable Republican lean, reflected in Donald Trump's 16.5-point margin there in 2024 and consistent GOP control since the early 1990s. Incumbent William Timmons secured renomination in the June 2026 Republican primary with nearly 66 percent of the vote against two challengers, while Democrat Courtney McClain advanced unopposed. Nonpartisan forecasts rate the seat solid Republican, citing the district's Partisan Voter Index and limited crossover appeal for Democratic candidates. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the absence of recent polling shifts, fundraising gaps, or national tailwinds that might compress the margin. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong Democratic turnout surge tied to broader midterm dynamics could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$47,619End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Carolina's 4th congressional district maintains a durable Republican lean, reflected in Donald Trump's 16.5-point margin there in 2024 and consistent GOP control since the early 1990s. Incumbent William Timmons secured renomination in the June 2026 Republican primary with nearly 66 percent of the vote against two challengers, while Democrat Courtney McClain advanced unopposed. Nonpartisan forecasts rate the seat solid Republican, citing the district's Partisan Voter Index and limited crossover appeal for Democratic candidates. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the absence of recent polling shifts, fundraising gaps, or national tailwinds that might compress the margin. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong Democratic turnout surge tied to broader midterm dynamics could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$47,619End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...South Carolina's 4th congressional district maintains a durable Republican lean, reflected in Donald Trump's 16.5-point margin there in 2024 and consistent GOP control since the early 1990s. Incumbent William Timmons secured renomination in the June 2026 Republican primary with nearly 66 percent of the vote against two challengers, while Democrat Courtney McClain advanced unopposed. Nonpartisan forecasts rate the seat solid Republican, citing the district's Partisan Voter Index and limited crossover appeal for Democratic candidates. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the absence of recent polling shifts, fundraising gaps, or national tailwinds that might compress the margin. A late scandal, health event, or unusually strong Democratic turnout surge tied to broader midterm dynamics could still alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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