The 2026 United Left primary, scheduled for 11 October to select a joint 2027 presidential candidate among groups such as Les Écologistes, L'Après, Debout! and Génération.s, faces near-certain cancellation. The Socialist Party's July 2026 membership vote (55.5 percent) to run a separate closed primary, combined with non-participation by La France Insoumise, Place Publique and the French Communist Party, removed essential breadth. Subsequent withdrawals by Clémentine Autain and Benjamin Lucas-Lundy, plus repeated public statements acknowledging the project's collapse, have left only narrow participation. Trader pricing at 92.8 percent for cancellation reflects this structural fragmentation and the absence of any recent reversal that could restore the original coalition framework. A last-minute consolidation among the remaining organizers remains theoretically possible before the October date but would require coordinated announcements that have not materialized.