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Politics·Midterms

CA-14 House Election Winner (Individual)

icon for CA-14 House Election Winner (Individual)
Politics·Midterms

CA-14 House Election Winner (Individual)

NEW
Polymarket
NEW

Aisha Wahab

$4,292 Vol.

87%

Melissa Hernandez

$2,092 Vol.

13%

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aisha Wahab's commanding performance in the June special primary for California's 14th congressional district has driven trader consensus toward her strong position ahead of the August 18 runoff against Melissa Hernandez. As the endorsed Democratic state senator, Wahab advanced with a substantial margin in the crowded field to replace the seat vacated by Eric Swalwell, while Hernandez, a BART board president and former Dublin mayor, secured the second spot. Recent developments include heavy outside spending in the East Bay race and public safety emerging as a focal issue, with both candidates also set to face off in the November general election for the full term. These dynamics have shaped the implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing.

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$6,384
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 10:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aisha Wahab's commanding performance in the June special primary for California's 14th congressional district has driven trader consensus toward her strong position ahead of the August 18 runoff against Melissa Hernandez. As the endorsed Democratic state senator, Wahab advanced with a substantial margin in the crowded field to replace the seat vacated by Eric Swalwell, while Hernandez, a BART board president and former Dublin mayor, secured the second spot. Recent developments include heavy outside spending in the East Bay race and public safety emerging as a focal issue, with both candidates also set to face off in the November general election for the full term. These dynamics have shaped the implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing.

This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$6,384
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 9, 2026, 10:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"CA-14 House Election Winner (Individual)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Aisha Wahab" at 87%, followed by "Melissa Hernandez" at 13%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 87¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"CA-14 House Election Winner (Individual)" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 9, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "CA-14 House Election Winner (Individual)," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CA-14 House Election Winner (Individual)" is "Aisha Wahab" at 87%, meaning the market assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Melissa Hernandez" at 13%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CA-14 House Election Winner (Individual)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.