The Rhode Island 2nd congressional district's established Democratic lean and Seth Magaziner's incumbency underpin the current trader consensus favoring a Democratic hold. Magaziner won reelection in 2024 by roughly 17 points in a district rated solid or safe Democratic by major forecasters. Republican primary contenders Victor Mellor and Stephen Skoly have begun fundraising, yet no polling or structural shifts have emerged to alter the baseline outlook ahead of the September 2026 primaries and November general election. A late national Republican wave, unusually high turnout shifts among key voting blocs, or an unexpected primary upset could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and the absence of competitive challenges to date maintain the wide implied probability gap.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
92%
共和党
8%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$2,592 Vol.
92%
共和党
$1,112 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Rhode Island 2nd congressional district's established Democratic lean and Seth Magaziner's incumbency underpin the current trader consensus favoring a Democratic hold. Magaziner won reelection in 2024 by roughly 17 points in a district rated solid or safe Democratic by major forecasters. Republican primary contenders Victor Mellor and Stephen Skoly have begun fundraising, yet no polling or structural shifts have emerged to alter the baseline outlook ahead of the September 2026 primaries and November general election. A late national Republican wave, unusually high turnout shifts among key voting blocs, or an unexpected primary upset could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and the absence of competitive challenges to date maintain the wide implied probability gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$3,704終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Rhode Island 2nd congressional district's established Democratic lean and Seth Magaziner's incumbency underpin the current trader consensus favoring a Democratic hold. Magaziner won reelection in 2024 by roughly 17 points in a district rated solid or safe Democratic by major forecasters. Republican primary contenders Victor Mellor and Stephen Skoly have begun fundraising, yet no polling or structural shifts have emerged to alter the baseline outlook ahead of the September 2026 primaries and November general election. A late national Republican wave, unusually high turnout shifts among key voting blocs, or an unexpected primary upset could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and the absence of competitive challenges to date maintain the wide implied probability gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$3,704終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Rhode Island 2nd congressional district's established Democratic lean and Seth Magaziner's incumbency underpin the current trader consensus favoring a Democratic hold. Magaziner won reelection in 2024 by roughly 17 points in a district rated solid or safe Democratic by major forecasters. Republican primary contenders Victor Mellor and Stephen Skoly have begun fundraising, yet no polling or structural shifts have emerged to alter the baseline outlook ahead of the September 2026 primaries and November general election. A late national Republican wave, unusually high turnout shifts among key voting blocs, or an unexpected primary upset could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and the absence of competitive challenges to date maintain the wide implied probability gap.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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