Andy Burnham’s selection as Labour’s candidate, following Josh Simons’s May 2026 resignation to enable a parliamentary seat for the Greater Manchester mayor, underpins the 73.5% implied probability. The move positions Burnham for a potential Labour leadership bid, drawing party resources and local recognition in a constituency Labour held in 2024 despite Reform UK’s strong second place. Robert Kenyon’s 24.5% reflects Reform’s targeted campaign and recent local election gains, though polls show Burnham ahead amid voter focus on cost-of-living and high-street issues. Minor candidates remain marginal ahead of the 18 June vote, with trader pricing consistent with historical by-election patterns favoring the incumbent party’s nominee.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Andy Burnham 74%
Robert Kenyon 25%
レベッカ・シェパード 2.6%
Simon Finkelstein <1%
$2,108,381 Vol.
$2,108,381 Vol.
2026/06/18
Andy Burnham
74%
Robert Kenyon
25%
レベッカ・シェパード
3%
Simon Finkelstein
<1%
Maria Deery
<1%
John Skipworth
<1%
James Thomas Bryer
<1%
Andy Burnham 74%
Robert Kenyon 25%
レベッカ・シェパード 2.6%
Simon Finkelstein <1%
$2,108,381 Vol.
$2,108,381 Vol.
2026/06/18
Andy Burnham
$199,353 Vol.
74%
Robert Kenyon
$134,874 Vol.
25%
レベッカ・シェパード
$1,746,264 Vol.
3%
Simon Finkelstein
$6,702 Vol.
<1%
Maria Deery
$6,509 Vol.
<1%
John Skipworth
$6,531 Vol.
<1%
James Thomas Bryer
$8,147 Vol.
<1%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).Andy Burnham’s selection as Labour’s candidate, following Josh Simons’s May 2026 resignation to enable a parliamentary seat for the Greater Manchester mayor, underpins the 73.5% implied probability. The move positions Burnham for a potential Labour leadership bid, drawing party resources and local recognition in a constituency Labour held in 2024 despite Reform UK’s strong second place. Robert Kenyon’s 24.5% reflects Reform’s targeted campaign and recent local election gains, though polls show Burnham ahead amid voter focus on cost-of-living and high-street issues. Minor candidates remain marginal ahead of the 18 June vote, with trader pricing consistent with historical by-election patterns favoring the incumbent party’s nominee.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
マーケット開始日： May 14, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
音量
$2,108,381終了日
2026/06/18マーケット開始日
May 14, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).Andy Burnham’s selection as Labour’s candidate, following Josh Simons’s May 2026 resignation to enable a parliamentary seat for the Greater Manchester mayor, underpins the 73.5% implied probability. The move positions Burnham for a potential Labour leadership bid, drawing party resources and local recognition in a constituency Labour held in 2024 despite Reform UK’s strong second place. Robert Kenyon’s 24.5% reflects Reform’s targeted campaign and recent local election gains, though polls show Burnham ahead amid voter focus on cost-of-living and high-street issues. Minor candidates remain marginal ahead of the 18 June vote, with trader pricing consistent with historical by-election patterns favoring the incumbent party’s nominee.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Makerfield parliamentary by-election in 2026.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
音量
$2,108,381終了日
2026/06/18マーケット開始日
May 14, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Andy Burnham’s selection as Labour’s candidate, following Josh Simons’s May 2026 resignation to enable a parliamentary seat for the Greater Manchester mayor, underpins the 73.5% implied probability. The move positions Burnham for a potential Labour leadership bid, drawing party resources and local recognition in a constituency Labour held in 2024 despite Reform UK’s strong second place. Robert Kenyon’s 24.5% reflects Reform’s targeted campaign and recent local election gains, though polls show Burnham ahead amid voter focus on cost-of-living and high-street issues. Minor candidates remain marginal ahead of the 18 June vote, with trader pricing consistent with historical by-election patterns favoring the incumbent party’s nominee.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問