The fresh Burnham ministry, formed in July 2026 after Keir Starmer’s departure, features several ministers in high-visibility or newly assigned roles such as Chancellor John Healey, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, and Justice Secretary Alex Norris. Trader consensus places “Other” at the head of the market because early exits in newly assembled cabinets frequently stem from personal circumstances, minor policy friction, or backbench pressure rather than the most prominent figures. Healey’s surprise Treasury appointment and prior resignation over defence funding, alongside Fahnbulleh’s energy brief and Norris’s justice portfolio, draw attention due to their prominence and any perceived scope for divergence on fiscal, security, or net-zero priorities. Recent constitutional pressures on the government, including independence referendum demands, have not yet produced confirmed cabinet-level departures. Resolution occurs on the first official announcement by the end of 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ジョン・ヒーリー 14%
ミアッタ・ファンブレ 10.3%
アレックス・ノリス 8.6%
スティーブン・キンノック 4.5%
$100,133 Vol.
$100,133 Vol.
2027/12/31
ジョン・ヒーリー
14%
ミアッタ・ファンブレ
10%
アレックス・ノリス
9%
スティーブン・キンノック
5%
アラン・キャンベル
4%
アンジェラ・レイナー
4%
シャバナ・マフムード
4%
クリス・ブライアント
4%
ルーシー・パウエル
4%
ウェス・ストリーティング
3%
ブリジット・フィリップソン
3%
アンジェラ・スミス
3%
パット・マクファデン
3%
ダグラス・アレクサンダー
3%
イヴェット・クーパー
3%
ハイディ・アレクサンダー
3%
ルイーズ・ヘイグ
3%
リサ・ナンディ
3%
ジョナサン・レイノルズ
2%
アネリーゼ・ミッジリー
2%
アンジェラ・イーグル
2%
エド・ミリバンド
2%
ジョン・ヒーリー 14%
ミアッタ・ファンブレ 10.3%
アレックス・ノリス 8.6%
スティーブン・キンノック 4.5%
$100,133 Vol.
$100,133 Vol.
2027/12/31
ジョン・ヒーリー
$21,826 Vol.
14%
ミアッタ・ファンブレ
$5,524 Vol.
10%
アレックス・ノリス
$1,567 Vol.
9%
スティーブン・キンノック
$4,459 Vol.
5%
アラン・キャンベル
$3,768 Vol.
4%
アンジェラ・レイナー
$789 Vol.
4%
シャバナ・マフムード
$20,066 Vol.
4%
クリス・ブライアント
$11,426 Vol.
4%
ルーシー・パウエル
$3,086 Vol.
4%
ウェス・ストリーティング
$349 Vol.
3%
ブリジット・フィリップソン
$3,915 Vol.
3%
アンジェラ・スミス
$1,532 Vol.
3%
パット・マクファデン
$9,066 Vol.
3%
ダグラス・アレクサンダー
$508 Vol.
3%
イヴェット・クーパー
$1,248 Vol.
3%
ハイディ・アレクサンダー
$2,182 Vol.
3%
ルイーズ・ヘイグ
$302 Vol.
3%
リサ・ナンディ
$579 Vol.
3%
ジョナサン・レイノルズ
$1,202 Vol.
2%
アネリーゼ・ミッジリー
$2,006 Vol.
2%
アンジェラ・イーグル
$3,678 Vol.
2%
エド・ミリバンド
$1,056 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the first individual, of those named in this list, whose departure from his or her position in the cabinet of Andy Burnham is officially announced by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The departure will be considered to be announced when the specified individual, Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that the specified individual has ceased or will cease to hold a United Kingdom cabinet position. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that he or she will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of his or her term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve according to the specified individual if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
If multiple individuals are officially announced to depart at the same time, this market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
An official announcement that an individual will remain in the cabinet under a different title or assignment will not qualify. The individual must be officially announced to depart the cabinet to qualify.
Whether or not an individual will continue or cease to attend cabinet meetings will have no bearing on this market. Only an individual’s departure from service in a relevant cabinet minister position will be relevant for resolution.
If Andy Burnham officially ceases to be Prime Minister, or no individual is officially announced to depart the Burnham cabinet, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the specified individual, Andy Burnham, and the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The fresh Burnham ministry, formed in July 2026 after Keir Starmer’s departure, features several ministers in high-visibility or newly assigned roles such as Chancellor John Healey, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, and Justice Secretary Alex Norris. Trader consensus places “Other” at the head of the market because early exits in newly assembled cabinets frequently stem from personal circumstances, minor policy friction, or backbench pressure rather than the most prominent figures. Healey’s surprise Treasury appointment and prior resignation over defence funding, alongside Fahnbulleh’s energy brief and Norris’s justice portfolio, draw attention due to their prominence and any perceived scope for divergence on fiscal, security, or net-zero priorities. Recent constitutional pressures on the government, including independence referendum demands, have not yet produced confirmed cabinet-level departures. Resolution occurs on the first official announcement by the end of 2027.
This market will resolve according to the first individual, of those named in this list, whose departure from his or her position in the cabinet of Andy Burnham is officially announced by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The departure will be considered to be announced when the specified individual, Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that the specified individual has ceased or will cease to hold a United Kingdom cabinet position. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that he or she will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of his or her term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve according to the specified individual if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
If multiple individuals are officially announced to depart at the same time, this market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
An official announcement that an individual will remain in the cabinet under a different title or assignment will not qualify. The individual must be officially announced to depart the cabinet to qualify.
Whether or not an individual will continue or cease to attend cabinet meetings will have no bearing on this market. Only an individual’s departure from service in a relevant cabinet minister position will be relevant for resolution.
If Andy Burnham officially ceases to be Prime Minister, or no individual is officially announced to depart the Burnham cabinet, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the specified individual, Andy Burnham, and the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The departure will be considered to be announced when the specified individual, Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that the specified individual has ceased or will cease to hold a United Kingdom cabinet position. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that he or she will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of his or her term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve according to the specified individual if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
If multiple individuals are officially announced to depart at the same time, this market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
An official announcement that an individual will remain in the cabinet under a different title or assignment will not qualify. The individual must be officially announced to depart the cabinet to qualify.
Whether or not an individual will continue or cease to attend cabinet meetings will have no bearing on this market. Only an individual’s departure from service in a relevant cabinet minister position will be relevant for resolution.
If Andy Burnham officially ceases to be Prime Minister, or no individual is officially announced to depart the Burnham cabinet, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the specified individual, Andy Burnham, and the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Aug 6, 2026, 5:28 AM ET
音量
$100,133終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Aug 6, 2026, 5:28 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the first individual, of those named in this list, whose departure from his or her position in the cabinet of Andy Burnham is officially announced by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The departure will be considered to be announced when the specified individual, Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that the specified individual has ceased or will cease to hold a United Kingdom cabinet position. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that he or she will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of his or her term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve according to the specified individual if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
If multiple individuals are officially announced to depart at the same time, this market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
An official announcement that an individual will remain in the cabinet under a different title or assignment will not qualify. The individual must be officially announced to depart the cabinet to qualify.
Whether or not an individual will continue or cease to attend cabinet meetings will have no bearing on this market. Only an individual’s departure from service in a relevant cabinet minister position will be relevant for resolution.
If Andy Burnham officially ceases to be Prime Minister, or no individual is officially announced to depart the Burnham cabinet, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the specified individual, Andy Burnham, and the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The fresh Burnham ministry, formed in July 2026 after Keir Starmer’s departure, features several ministers in high-visibility or newly assigned roles such as Chancellor John Healey, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, and Justice Secretary Alex Norris. Trader consensus places “Other” at the head of the market because early exits in newly assembled cabinets frequently stem from personal circumstances, minor policy friction, or backbench pressure rather than the most prominent figures. Healey’s surprise Treasury appointment and prior resignation over defence funding, alongside Fahnbulleh’s energy brief and Norris’s justice portfolio, draw attention due to their prominence and any perceived scope for divergence on fiscal, security, or net-zero priorities. Recent constitutional pressures on the government, including independence referendum demands, have not yet produced confirmed cabinet-level departures. Resolution occurs on the first official announcement by the end of 2027.
This market will resolve according to the first individual, of those named in this list, whose departure from his or her position in the cabinet of Andy Burnham is officially announced by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The departure will be considered to be announced when the specified individual, Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that the specified individual has ceased or will cease to hold a United Kingdom cabinet position. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that he or she will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of his or her term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve according to the specified individual if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
If multiple individuals are officially announced to depart at the same time, this market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
An official announcement that an individual will remain in the cabinet under a different title or assignment will not qualify. The individual must be officially announced to depart the cabinet to qualify.
Whether or not an individual will continue or cease to attend cabinet meetings will have no bearing on this market. Only an individual’s departure from service in a relevant cabinet minister position will be relevant for resolution.
If Andy Burnham officially ceases to be Prime Minister, or no individual is officially announced to depart the Burnham cabinet, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the specified individual, Andy Burnham, and the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The departure will be considered to be announced when the specified individual, Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that the specified individual has ceased or will cease to hold a United Kingdom cabinet position. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that he or she will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of his or her term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the end of their scheduled term without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve according to the specified individual if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
If multiple individuals are officially announced to depart at the same time, this market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
An official announcement that an individual will remain in the cabinet under a different title or assignment will not qualify. The individual must be officially announced to depart the cabinet to qualify.
Whether or not an individual will continue or cease to attend cabinet meetings will have no bearing on this market. Only an individual’s departure from service in a relevant cabinet minister position will be relevant for resolution.
If Andy Burnham officially ceases to be Prime Minister, or no individual is officially announced to depart the Burnham cabinet, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the specified individual, Andy Burnham, and the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$100,133終了日
2027/12/31マーケット開始日
Aug 6, 2026, 5:28 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The fresh Burnham ministry, formed in July 2026 after Keir Starmer’s departure, features several ministers in high-visibility or newly assigned roles such as Chancellor John Healey, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, and Justice Secretary Alex Norris. Trader consensus places “Other” at the head of the market because early exits in newly assembled cabinets frequently stem from personal circumstances, minor policy friction, or backbench pressure rather than the most prominent figures. Healey’s surprise Treasury appointment and prior resignation over defence funding, alongside Fahnbulleh’s energy brief and Norris’s justice portfolio, draw attention due to their prominence and any perceived scope for divergence on fiscal, security, or net-zero priorities. Recent constitutional pressures on the government, including independence referendum demands, have not yet produced confirmed cabinet-level departures. Resolution occurs on the first official announcement by the end of 2027.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問