Question 1

What does "accuracy" mean here?

Accepted Answer

Accuracy shows how often the top-voted outcome before a market closed ended up being right. For example, if "Yes" was leading at 65% twelve hours before resolution and the market resolved "Yes," that counts as accurate.

Question 2

What is a "Brier score"?

Accepted Answer

The Brier score measures how close predicted probabilities were to the actual outcomes. It's the average of the squared differences between what was predicted and what actually happened. Lower scores mean better predictions, with 0 being perfect.

Question 3

Why does accuracy improve closer to resolution?

Accepted Answer

As polymarkets get closer to resolving, traders have more information to work with. New updates and developments are priced in, making the odds more accurate and helping it converge toward the correct outcome.

Question 4

Why do more polymarkets resolve "No" than "Yes"?

Accepted Answer

There are usually more ways for something not to happen than to happen in one exact way, thus "No" outcomes tend to occur more often.

Question 5

Where does this data come from?

Accepted Answer

All data is sourced from resolved polymarkets, which is publicly accessible through the Polymarket API. The analysis uses price snapshots taken at fixed time intervals before resolution.

Polymarketはどの程度正確ですか？

解決前の正確さ

予想対実績

ブライアースコア対ボリューム

解像度の構成

方法

よくある質問

Polymarketはどの程度正確ですか？

解決前の正確さ

予想対実績

ブライアースコア対ボリューム

解像度の構成

方法

よくある質問

ここでいう「正確さ」とはどういう意味ですか？

「ブライアスコア」とは何ですか？

解決に近い精度が向上するのはなぜですか？

「はい」よりも「いいえ」を解決するポリマーケットが多いのはなぜですか？

このデータはどこから来たのですか？