Trader consensus favors a Democrats Sweep at 48.5% in the Balance of Power for 2026 midterms, driven by persistent Democratic leads in generic congressional ballot polls—recent surveys show Democrats ahead by 3–6.7 points nationally, including Emerson's January edge and the latest New York Times tracking—reflecting historical midterm headwinds for the president's party, which controls both chambers entering the cycle with slim majorities. The runner-up R Senate, D House outcome at 36.5% accounts for the GOP-favorable Senate map defending fewer seats, where Democrats hold narrow edges in four critical races per recent polling, amid first primaries on March 4 signaling competitive battlegrounds. Republicans Sweep lags at 14.5% amid these polling trends and enthusiasm gaps. Key upcoming primaries and potential retirements could shift dynamics before November 3.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日民主党圧勝 49%
上院は共和党、下院は民主党 37%
共和党が圧勝 15%
上院は民主党、下院は共和党 <1%
$4,172,034 Vol.
$4,172,034 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
4%を獲得
民主党圧勝
49%
上院は民主党、下院は共和党
1%
上院は共和党、下院は民主党
37%
共和党が圧勝
15%
その他
1%
民主党圧勝 49%
上院は共和党、下院は民主党 37%
共和党が圧勝 15%
上院は民主党、下院は共和党 <1%
$4,172,034 Vol.
$4,172,034 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
4%を獲得
民主党圧勝
$1,115,464 Vol.
49%
上院は民主党、下院は共和党
$578,075 Vol.
1%
上院は共和党、下院は民主党
$800,244 Vol.
37%
共和党が圧勝
$881,126 Vol.
15%
その他
$797,125 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus favors a Democrats Sweep at 48.5% in the Balance of Power for 2026 midterms, driven by persistent Democratic leads in generic congressional ballot polls—recent surveys show Democrats ahead by 3–6.7 points nationally, including Emerson's January edge and the latest New York Times tracking—reflecting historical midterm headwinds for the president's party, which controls both chambers entering the cycle with slim majorities. The runner-up R Senate, D House outcome at 36.5% accounts for the GOP-favorable Senate map defending fewer seats, where Democrats hold narrow edges in four critical races per recent polling, amid first primaries on March 4 signaling competitive battlegrounds. Republicans Sweep lags at 14.5% amid these polling trends and enthusiasm gaps. Key upcoming primaries and potential retirements could shift dynamics before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Jul 11, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
音量
$4,172,034終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jul 11, 2025, 5:04 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus favors a Democrats Sweep at 48.5% in the Balance of Power for 2026 midterms, driven by persistent Democratic leads in generic congressional ballot polls—recent surveys show Democrats ahead by 3–6.7 points nationally, including Emerson's January edge and the latest New York Times tracking—reflecting historical midterm headwinds for the president's party, which controls both chambers entering the cycle with slim majorities. The runner-up R Senate, D House outcome at 36.5% accounts for the GOP-favorable Senate map defending fewer seats, where Democrats hold narrow edges in four critical races per recent polling, amid first primaries on March 4 signaling competitive battlegrounds. Republicans Sweep lags at 14.5% amid these polling trends and enthusiasm gaps. Key upcoming primaries and potential retirements could shift dynamics before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the result of the 2026 United States midterm elections.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the House of Representatives, if they win a majority of voting seats.
A party will be considered to have 'control' of the Senate if they have more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice President.
A candidate's party is determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican Parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party that they most recently expressed their intent to caucus with at the time the 2026 United States midterm elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
If control of the House is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the US House who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
If control of the Senate is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Majority Leader of the US Senate who is selected following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called winners of the House and Senate in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$4,172,034終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Jul 11, 2025, 5:04 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus favors a Democrats Sweep at 48.5% in the Balance of Power for 2026 midterms, driven by persistent Democratic leads in generic congressional ballot polls—recent surveys show Democrats ahead by 3–6.7 points nationally, including Emerson's January edge and the latest New York Times tracking—reflecting historical midterm headwinds for the president's party, which controls both chambers entering the cycle with slim majorities. The runner-up R Senate, D House outcome at 36.5% accounts for the GOP-favorable Senate map defending fewer seats, where Democrats hold narrow edges in four critical races per recent polling, amid first primaries on March 4 signaling competitive battlegrounds. Republicans Sweep lags at 14.5% amid these polling trends and enthusiasm gaps. Key upcoming primaries and potential retirements could shift dynamics before November 3.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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