Market icon
政治·議会

2026年中間選挙後の共和党上院議員数は？

Market icon
政治·議会

2026年中間選挙後の共和党上院議員数は？

51 seats

47以下 26%

49 21%

48 14%

50 12%

Polymarket

$2,044,073 Vol.

47以下 26%

49 21%

48 14%

50 12%

Polymarket

$2,044,073 Vol.

47以下

$27,243 Vol.

26%

48

$14,717 Vol.

14%

49

$10,628 Vol.

21%

50

$59,581 Vol.

12%

51

$154,206 Vol.

11%

52

$502,407 Vol.

7%

53

$10,259 Vol.

7%

54

$706,168 Vol.

3%

55

$391,042 Vol.

2%

56

$138,698 Vol.

1%

57以上

$29,122 Vol.

1%

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight contest for Republican Senate seats post-2026 midterms, with ≤47 seats at 25.5% slightly edging 49 at 21%, implying expected net losses of 4–6 from the current 53-seat majority amid historical midterm penalties for the president's party. The map favors Republicans, who defend 22 mostly safe seats versus Democrats' 13 in battlegrounds like Georgia and Michigan, but offsets this with uncertainty over national mood, economic conditions, and President Trump's approval ratings. No major candidate announcements or retirements have emerged in recent weeks, keeping odds clustered; early primary filings, polling averages from swing states, and shifts in party control of governorships could widen separation by mid-2025.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight contest for Republican Senate seats post-2026 midterms, with ≤47 seats at 25.5% slightly edging 49 at 21%, implying expected net losses of 4–6 from the current 53-seat majority amid historical midterm penalties for the president's party. The map favors Republicans, who defend 22 mostly safe seats versus Democrats' 13 in battlegrounds like Georgia and Michigan, but offsets this with uncertainty over national mood, economic conditions, and President Trump's approval ratings. No major candidate announcements or retirements have emerged in recent weeks, keeping odds clustered; early primary filings, polling averages from swing states, and shifts in party control of governorships could widen separation by mid-2025.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight contest for Republican Senate seats post-2026 midterms, with ≤47 seats at 25.5% slightly edging 49 at 21%, implying expected net losses of 4–6 from the current 53-seat majority amid historical midterm penalties for the president's party. The map favors Republicans, who defend 22 mostly safe seats versus Democrats' 13 in battlegrounds like Georgia and Michigan, but offsets this with uncertainty over national mood, economic conditions, and President Trump's approval ratings. No major candidate announcements or retirements have emerged in recent weeks, keeping odds clustered; early primary filings, polling averages from swing states, and shifts in party control of governorships could widen separation by mid-2025.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight contest for Republican Senate seats post-2026 midterms, with ≤47 seats at 25.5% slightly edging 49 at 21%, implying expected net losses of 4–6 from the current 53-seat majority amid historical midterm penalties for the president's party. The map favors Republicans, who defend 22 mostly safe seats versus Democrats' 13 in battlegrounds like Georgia and Michigan, but offsets this with uncertainty over national mood, economic conditions, and President Trump's approval ratings. No major candidate announcements or retirements have emerged in recent weeks, keeping odds clustered; early primary filings, polling averages from swing states, and shifts in party control of governorships could widen separation by mid-2025.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「2026年中間選挙後の共和党上院議員数は？」はPolymarket上の11個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「47以下」で26%、次いで「49」が21%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、26¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に26%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2026年中間選挙後の共和党上院議員数は？」は$2 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Dec 19, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2026年中間選挙後の共和党上院議員数は？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている11個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「2026年中間選挙後の共和党上院議員数は？」の現在のフロントランナーは「47以下」で26%であり、市場がこの結果に26%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「49」で21%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2026年中間選挙後の共和党上院議員数は？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。