Republican traders price a tight 2026 Senate midterm battle from a Republican baseline of 53 seats post-2024, with odds highest for 47 or fewer GOP seats at 26% and 49 at 19.5%, reflecting a map where Republicans defend 22 mostly safe Class 2 seats but face exposure in battlegrounds like Maine (Susan Collins) and open North Carolina after Sen. Thom Tillis's October 30 retirement announcement. Democrats target net gains averaging three to four seats in midterms for the president's out-party—here Republicans under Trump—via pickups in swing states including Georgia (Jon Ossoff) and New Hampshire (Maggie Hassan), while defending fewer vulnerable holds like Michigan (Gary Peters). Early candidate announcements, primary dynamics, and initial polling will sharpen separation ahead of November 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日51 seats
47以下 26%
49 20%
50 14%
51 12%
$2,041,408 Vol.
$2,041,408 Vol.
47以下
26%
48
12%
49
20%
50
14%
51
12%
52
8%
53
7%
54
4%
55
2%
56
2%
57以上
3%
47以下 26%
49 20%
50 14%
51 12%
$2,041,408 Vol.
$2,041,408 Vol.
47以下
$27,068 Vol.
26%
48
$14,180 Vol.
12%
49
$10,248 Vol.
20%
50
$59,192 Vol.
14%
51
$154,044 Vol.
12%
52
$502,142 Vol.
8%
53
$10,131 Vol.
7%
54
$706,051 Vol.
4%
55
$390,767 Vol.
2%
56
$138,580 Vol.
2%
57以上
$29,004 Vol.
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Republican traders price a tight 2026 Senate midterm battle from a Republican baseline of 53 seats post-2024, with odds highest for 47 or fewer GOP seats at 26% and 49 at 19.5%, reflecting a map where Republicans defend 22 mostly safe Class 2 seats but face exposure in battlegrounds like Maine (Susan Collins) and open North Carolina after Sen. Thom Tillis's October 30 retirement announcement. Democrats target net gains averaging three to four seats in midterms for the president's out-party—here Republicans under Trump—via pickups in swing states including Georgia (Jon Ossoff) and New Hampshire (Maggie Hassan), while defending fewer vulnerable holds like Michigan (Gary Peters). Early candidate announcements, primary dynamics, and initial polling will sharpen separation ahead of November 2026.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ET
音量
$2,041,408マーケット開始日
Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Republican traders price a tight 2026 Senate midterm battle from a Republican baseline of 53 seats post-2024, with odds highest for 47 or fewer GOP seats at 26% and 49 at 19.5%, reflecting a map where Republicans defend 22 mostly safe Class 2 seats but face exposure in battlegrounds like Maine (Susan Collins) and open North Carolina after Sen. Thom Tillis's October 30 retirement announcement. Democrats target net gains averaging three to four seats in midterms for the president's out-party—here Republicans under Trump—via pickups in swing states including Georgia (Jon Ossoff) and New Hampshire (Maggie Hassan), while defending fewer vulnerable holds like Michigan (Gary Peters). Early candidate announcements, primary dynamics, and initial polling will sharpen separation ahead of November 2026.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$2,041,408マーケット開始日
Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican traders price a tight 2026 Senate midterm battle from a Republican baseline of 53 seats post-2024, with odds highest for 47 or fewer GOP seats at 26% and 49 at 19.5%, reflecting a map where Republicans defend 22 mostly safe Class 2 seats but face exposure in battlegrounds like Maine (Susan Collins) and open North Carolina after Sen. Thom Tillis's October 30 retirement announcement. Democrats target net gains averaging three to four seats in midterms for the president's out-party—here Republicans under Trump—via pickups in swing states including Georgia (Jon Ossoff) and New Hampshire (Maggie Hassan), while defending fewer vulnerable holds like Michigan (Gary Peters). Early candidate announcements, primary dynamics, and initial polling will sharpen separation ahead of November 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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