With the March 31 deadline just days away, Polymarket traders reflect near-unanimous consensus at 99.5% market-implied probability for "No," driven by the absence of any tariff-imposing legislation advancing in the 119th Congress amid a scheduled state work period for both chambers starting March 30. Recent executive actions by the Trump administration, including a 10% Section 122 tariff in February and Supreme Court invalidation of IEEPA-based tariffs on February 20, have sidestepped congressional involvement, while introduced bills like H.R. 7865 focus on rebates and oversight rather than new duties. Tail risks include an improbable emergency session or bipartisan fast-track, but legislative inertia and recess timing solidify trader confidence in non-passage.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$24,867 Vol.
$24,867 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
はい
$24,867 Vol.
$24,867 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that explicitly seeks to create a tariff on any country or set of countries for any goods by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.With the March 31 deadline just days away, Polymarket traders reflect near-unanimous consensus at 99.5% market-implied probability for "No," driven by the absence of any tariff-imposing legislation advancing in the 119th Congress amid a scheduled state work period for both chambers starting March 30. Recent executive actions by the Trump administration, including a 10% Section 122 tariff in February and Supreme Court invalidation of IEEPA-based tariffs on February 20, have sidestepped congressional involvement, while introduced bills like H.R. 7865 focus on rebates and oversight rather than new duties. Tail risks include an improbable emergency session or bipartisan fast-track, but legislative inertia and recess timing solidify trader confidence in non-passage.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that explicitly seeks to create a tariff on any country or set of countries for any goods by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Feb 20, 2026, 1:46 PM ET
音量
$24,867終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 20, 2026, 1:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that explicitly seeks to create a tariff on any country or set of countries for any goods by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.With the March 31 deadline just days away, Polymarket traders reflect near-unanimous consensus at 99.5% market-implied probability for "No," driven by the absence of any tariff-imposing legislation advancing in the 119th Congress amid a scheduled state work period for both chambers starting March 30. Recent executive actions by the Trump administration, including a 10% Section 122 tariff in February and Supreme Court invalidation of IEEPA-based tariffs on February 20, have sidestepped congressional involvement, while introduced bills like H.R. 7865 focus on rebates and oversight rather than new duties. Tail risks include an improbable emergency session or bipartisan fast-track, but legislative inertia and recess timing solidify trader confidence in non-passage.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate pass the same bill, measure, or resolution that explicitly seeks to create a tariff on any country or set of countries for any goods by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
A bill, measure or resolution will be considered to “seek to create a tariff” if it explicitly calls for or orders the imposition of any import tax or duty on any category of goods from any country or region. Category-specific tariffs, general tariffs on countries, or blanket global tariffs will all qualify. The delegation of tariff powers to other government authorities (e.g. the President) without calling for specific tariffs to be imposed, trade restrictions which do not impose an import tax or duty, or tariffs imposed under existing executive authority without new passage by both chambers of Congress will not qualify.
A measure amended by either chamber will only qualify if the amended version is subsequently passed by both chambers in identical form.
The resolution source will be official congressional voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$24,867終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 20, 2026, 1:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...With the March 31 deadline just days away, Polymarket traders reflect near-unanimous consensus at 99.5% market-implied probability for "No," driven by the absence of any tariff-imposing legislation advancing in the 119th Congress amid a scheduled state work period for both chambers starting March 30. Recent executive actions by the Trump administration, including a 10% Section 122 tariff in February and Supreme Court invalidation of IEEPA-based tariffs on February 20, have sidestepped congressional involvement, while introduced bills like H.R. 7865 focus on rebates and oversight rather than new duties. Tail risks include an improbable emergency session or bipartisan fast-track, but legislative inertia and recess timing solidify trader confidence in non-passage.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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