Trader consensus heavily favors no Trump-Putin meeting by June 30 at 82.7%, driven by the absence of any announced in-person summit amid stalled Ukraine peace talks and escalating Middle East tensions involving Iran. Recent phone discussions on March 9 covered Ukraine advances and a quick Iran settlement, per Kremlin statements, but yielded no summit plans. President Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff is set to visit Moscow this week for Ukraine negotiations, opting for indirect diplomacy rather than a leaders' summit. Past efforts, like the August 2025 Alaska meeting and canceled October Budapest plans, highlight logistical and substantive hurdles including sanctions and territorial disputes. Low probabilities on locations like Gulf countries or Russia reflect unconfirmed venues, with odds poised for shifts only via major diplomatic breakthroughs before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日6月30日までに会談なし 82.5%
湾岸諸国 3.8%
ロシア 2.9%
他のEU諸国 2.8%
$4,115,799 Vol.
$4,115,799 Vol.

6月30日までに会談なし
83%

湾岸諸国
4%

ロシア
3%

他のEU諸国
3%

中国
2%

その他
2%

アメリカ合衆国
2%

トルコ
1%

ベラルーシ
1%

スイス
1%

ウクライナ
<1%

日本
<1%

フィンランド
<1%

韓国
<1%

オーストラリア
<1%
6月30日までに会談なし 82.5%
湾岸諸国 3.8%
ロシア 2.9%
他のEU諸国 2.8%
$4,115,799 Vol.
$4,115,799 Vol.

6月30日までに会談なし
83%

湾岸諸国
4%

ロシア
3%

他のEU諸国
3%

中国
2%

その他
2%

アメリカ合衆国
2%

トルコ
1%

ベラルーシ
1%

スイス
1%

ウクライナ
<1%

日本
<1%

フィンランド
<1%

韓国
<1%

オーストラリア
<1%
This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.
A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.
An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.
For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日: Sep 30, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.
A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.
An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.
For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors no Trump-Putin meeting by June 30 at 82.7%, driven by the absence of any announced in-person summit amid stalled Ukraine peace talks and escalating Middle East tensions involving Iran. Recent phone discussions on March 9 covered Ukraine advances and a quick Iran settlement, per Kremlin statements, but yielded no summit plans. President Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff is set to visit Moscow this week for Ukraine negotiations, opting for indirect diplomacy rather than a leaders' summit. Past efforts, like the August 2025 Alaska meeting and canceled October Budapest plans, highlight logistical and substantive hurdles including sanctions and territorial disputes. Low probabilities on locations like Gulf countries or Russia reflect unconfirmed venues, with odds poised for shifts only via major diplomatic breakthroughs before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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