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地政学·米国xイラン

ヴァンスは次の日までに中東を訪問しますか？

Market icon
地政学·米国xイラン

ヴァンスは次の日までに中東を訪問しますか？

NEW
Apr 30, 2026
Polymarket

$1,300 Vol.

Polymarket

3月31日

$959 Vol.

17%

4月10日

$341 Vol.

28%

If U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance visits the Greater Middle East between market creation and the listed date and 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the Greater Middle East refers to the region comprising Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Yemen, Turkey, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Vance physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of a listed country. Whether or not Vance enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Vance or released by his verified social media accounts, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.If U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance visits the Greater Middle East between market creation and the listed date and 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the Greater Middle East refers to the region comprising Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Yemen, Turkey, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Vance physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of a listed country. Whether or not Vance enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Vance or released by his verified social media accounts, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

If U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance visits the Greater Middle East between market creation and the listed date and 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the Greater Middle East refers to the region comprising Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Yemen, Turkey, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Vance physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of a listed country. Whether or not Vance enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Vance or released by his verified social media accounts, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$1,300
終了日
Apr 30, 2026
マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 5:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance visits the Greater Middle East between market creation and the listed date and 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the Greater Middle East refers to the region comprising Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Yemen, Turkey, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Vance physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of a listed country. Whether or not Vance enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Vance or released by his verified social media accounts, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance visits the Greater Middle East between market creation and the listed date and 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the Greater Middle East refers to the region comprising Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Yemen, Turkey, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Vance physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of a listed country. Whether or not Vance enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Vance or released by his verified social media accounts, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.If U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance visits the Greater Middle East between market creation and the listed date and 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the Greater Middle East refers to the region comprising Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Yemen, Turkey, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Vance physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of a listed country. Whether or not Vance enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Vance or released by his verified social media accounts, however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

JD Vance's intensive U.S. campaign schedule in battleground states amid a close presidential contest remains the dominant factor suppressing trader consensus on a Middle East trip by the deadline, with no official announcements from the Trump-Vance team. Recent escalations in Gaza, Lebanon, and tensions with Iran have heightened calls for Republican outreach to Israel and Gulf allies, yet Vance has focused domestically on economic policy, immigration, and rallies following Netanyahu's recent U.S. congressional address. Upcoming VP debate fallout and October swing-state pushes could further limit travel windows, while a Trump victory might prompt post-election diplomacy. Odds reflect wisdom of crowds betting against disruption to voter outreach.

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よくある質問

「ヴァンスは次の日までに中東を訪問しますか？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「4月10日」で28%、次いで「3月31日」が17%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、28¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に28%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

「ヴァンスは次の日までに中東を訪問しますか？」はPolymarket上で新しく作成された市場です（Mar 24, 2026開始）。早期の市場として、最初のトレーダーの一人としてオッズを設定し、市場の初期価格シグナルを確立するチャンスです。このページをブックマークして、取引量と活動を追跡することもできます。

「ヴァンスは次の日までに中東を訪問しますか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「ヴァンスは次の日までに中東を訪問しますか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「4月10日」で28%であり、市場がこの結果に28%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「3月31日」で17%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

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