Trader consensus on Polymarket implies Israel will strike four countries in 2026 at 37%, with five close behind at 30%, reflecting strikes already confirmed in Iran, Lebanon, and Syria amid the US-Israel war launched February 28 against Tehran's nuclear, military, and economic targets—including a fresh April 1 airstrike on Iran's capital. Intensified ground operations and over 250 airstrikes in southern Lebanon since mid-March, targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, have expanded the northern front, while routine Syrian operations continue. The tight race stems from de-escalation signals like US-led ceasefire negotiations and President Trump's planned address, capping expansion risks, versus potential Houthi retaliation in Yemen or militia strikes in Iraq that could push toward five or more before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日4 37.5%
5 30.0%
6 12.8%
3 12.1%
$6,348,165 Vol.
$6,348,165 Vol.
2026/12/31
3
12%
4
38%
5
30%
6
13%
7
3%
8
2%
9
1%
10
1%
11
1%
12
<1%
13
<1%
14
<1%
15以上
<1%
4 37.5%
5 30.0%
6 12.8%
3 12.1%
$6,348,165 Vol.
$6,348,165 Vol.
2026/12/31
3
$1,892,611 Vol.
12%
4
$1,140,311 Vol.
38%
5
$491,271 Vol.
30%
6
$626,342 Vol.
13%
7
$584,733 Vol.
3%
8
$499,429 Vol.
2%
9
$198,729 Vol.
1%
10
$375,403 Vol.
1%
11
$89,607 Vol.
1%
12
$59,435 Vol.
<1%
13
$130,826 Vol.
<1%
14
$98,751 Vol.
<1%
15以上
$35,136 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies Israel will strike four countries in 2026 at 37%, with five close behind at 30%, reflecting strikes already confirmed in Iran, Lebanon, and Syria amid the US-Israel war launched February 28 against Tehran's nuclear, military, and economic targets—including a fresh April 1 airstrike on Iran's capital. Intensified ground operations and over 250 airstrikes in southern Lebanon since mid-March, targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, have expanded the northern front, while routine Syrian operations continue. The tight race stems from de-escalation signals like US-led ceasefire negotiations and President Trump's planned address, capping expansion risks, versus potential Houthi retaliation in Yemen or militia strikes in Iraq that could push toward five or more before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ET
音量
$6,348,165終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies Israel will strike four countries in 2026 at 37%, with five close behind at 30%, reflecting strikes already confirmed in Iran, Lebanon, and Syria amid the US-Israel war launched February 28 against Tehran's nuclear, military, and economic targets—including a fresh April 1 airstrike on Iran's capital. Intensified ground operations and over 250 airstrikes in southern Lebanon since mid-March, targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, have expanded the northern front, while routine Syrian operations continue. The tight race stems from de-escalation signals like US-led ceasefire negotiations and President Trump's planned address, capping expansion risks, versus potential Houthi retaliation in Yemen or militia strikes in Iraq that could push toward five or more before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$6,348,165終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies Israel will strike four countries in 2026 at 37%, with five close behind at 30%, reflecting strikes already confirmed in Iran, Lebanon, and Syria amid the US-Israel war launched February 28 against Tehran's nuclear, military, and economic targets—including a fresh April 1 airstrike on Iran's capital. Intensified ground operations and over 250 airstrikes in southern Lebanon since mid-March, targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, have expanded the northern front, while routine Syrian operations continue. The tight race stems from de-escalation signals like US-led ceasefire negotiations and President Trump's planned address, capping expansion risks, versus potential Houthi retaliation in Yemen or militia strikes in Iraq that could push toward five or more before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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