Trader consensus on the Iran-Israel-US conflict resolution timeline tilts toward extended durations, driven by Israel's limited October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military targets—met with Tehran's restrained rhetoric—and mutual signals of de-escalation amid US warnings against escalation. Persistent proxy clashes via Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea sustain hostilities, while IAEA reports on Iran's nuclear progress add pressure for diplomacy or sanctions. The November 5 US presidential election looms as a pivotal uncertainty, with potential policy shifts influencing involvement. Absent ceasefires or breakthroughs, traders assign low odds to near-term endings, reflecting historical patterns of shadow warfare.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$6,870,509 Vol.
3月31日
12%
4月15日
32%
4月7日
26%
4月30日
48%
5月15日
56%
6月30日
73%
12月31日
84%
$6,870,509 Vol.
3月31日
12%
4月15日
32%
4月7日
26%
4月30日
48%
5月15日
56%
6月30日
73%
12月31日
84%
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
マーケット開始日: Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on the Iran-Israel-US conflict resolution timeline tilts toward extended durations, driven by Israel's limited October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military targets—met with Tehran's restrained rhetoric—and mutual signals of de-escalation amid US warnings against escalation. Persistent proxy clashes via Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea sustain hostilities, while IAEA reports on Iran's nuclear progress add pressure for diplomacy or sanctions. The November 5 US presidential election looms as a pivotal uncertainty, with potential policy shifts influencing involvement. Absent ceasefires or breakthroughs, traders assign low odds to near-term endings, reflecting historical patterns of shadow warfare.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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