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icon for 4月30日までに___に対するイランの軍事行動？
地政学·米国xイラン

4月30日までに___に対するイランの軍事行動？

icon for 4月30日までに___に対するイランの軍事行動？
地政学·米国xイラン

4月30日までに___に対するイランの軍事行動？

Ended: 4月 30

Ended: 4月 30

$5,846,810 Vol.

2026/04/30
Polymarket

$5,846,810 Vol.

Polymarket

イスラエル

$16,598 Vol.

はい

ヨルダン

$11,957 Vol.

はい

サウジアラビア

$41,566 Vol.

はい

バーレーン

$204,021 Vol.

はい

UAE

$112,616 Vol.

はい

クウェート

$14,518 Vol.

はい

トルコ

$45,186 Vol.

いいえ

キプロス

$29,238 Vol.

いいえ

カタール

$262,965 Vol.

いいえ

イラク

$2,113,422 Vol.

はい

アフガニスタン

$12,182 Vol.

いいえ

パキスタン

$54,474 Vol.

いいえ

イエメン

$21,664 Vol.

いいえ

オマーン

$112,170 Vol.

いいえ

シリア

$28,090 Vol.

いいえ

レバノン

$65,843 Vol.

いいえ

インド

$30,302 Vol.

いいえ

スペイン

$11,385 Vol.

いいえ

フランス

$50,991 Vol.

いいえ

ドイツ

$22,889 Vol.

いいえ

ポーランド

$40,238 Vol.

いいえ

イタリア

$4,107 Vol.

いいえ

ハンガリー

$26,172 Vol.

いいえ

ウクライナ

$16,197 Vol.

いいえ

アゼルバイジャン

$109,980 Vol.

いいえ

アルメニア

$11,913 Vol.

いいえ

ジョージア

$18,231 Vol.

いいえ

イギリス

$31,836 Vol.

いいえ

サウジアラビア

$13,021 Vol.

はい

ヨルダン

$79,392 Vol.

いいえ

バーレーン

$1,194,234 Vol.

いいえ

クウェート

$1,039,409 Vol.

はい

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.In the 2026 Iran war, triggered by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian missile sites, nuclear facilities, and military infrastructure starting February 28, Iran retaliated with missile and drone barrages against Israel in March and early April, confirming military action by April 30 and resolving the market accordingly. A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire has held since late March, enabling Iran to regenerate degraded missile and drone forces, per April 29 assessments. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reaffirmed Tehran's control over Strait of Hormuz shipping on April 30 amid U.S. threats of intervention, while Hezbollah conducted a drone strike wounding 12 Israeli soldiers near the northern border. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations and potential Hormuz escalations loom as key risks.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.

Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
音量
$5,846,810
終了日
2026/04/30
マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

提案された結果: はい

異議申し立てなし

最終結果: はい

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.In the 2026 Iran war, triggered by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian missile sites, nuclear facilities, and military infrastructure starting February 28, Iran retaliated with missile and drone barrages against Israel in March and early April, confirming military action by April 30 and resolving the market accordingly. A fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire has held since late March, enabling Iran to regenerate degraded missile and drone forces, per April 29 assessments. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reaffirmed Tehran's control over Strait of Hormuz shipping on April 30 amid U.S. threats of intervention, while Hezbollah conducted a drone strike wounding 12 Israeli soldiers near the northern border. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations and potential Hormuz escalations loom as key risks.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.

Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.

Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
音量
$5,846,810
終了日
2026/04/30
マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

提案された結果: はい

異議申し立てなし

最終結果: はい

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「4月30日までに___に対するイランの軍事行動？」はPolymarket上の32個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「イスラエル」で100%、次いで「ヨルダン」が100%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、100¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に100%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「4月30日までに___に対するイランの軍事行動？」は$5.8 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Mar 24, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「4月30日までに___に対するイランの軍事行動？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている32個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「4月30日までに___に対するイランの軍事行動？」の現在のフロントランナーは「イスラエル」で100%であり、市場がこの結果に100%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「ヨルダン」で100%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「4月30日までに___に対するイランの軍事行動？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。