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icon for 4月30日までにイランに対して軍事行動を行うのはどの国ですか？
地政学·イスラエルxイラン

4月30日までにイランに対して軍事行動を行うのはどの国ですか？

icon for 4月30日までにイランに対して軍事行動を行うのはどの国ですか？
地政学·イスラエルxイラン

4月30日までにイランに対して軍事行動を行うのはどの国ですか？

Ended: 4月 30

Ended: 4月 30

$3,651,056 Vol.

2026/04/30
Polymarket

$3,651,056 Vol.

Polymarket

イギリス

$280,515 Vol.

いいえ

ヨルダン

$34,668 Vol.

いいえ

カナダ

$46,477 Vol.

いいえ

カタール

$56,438 Vol.

いいえ

サウジアラビア

$604,280 Vol.

いいえ

クウェート

$168,726 Vol.

いいえ

UAE

$1,848,712 Vol.

いいえ

フランス

$211,561 Vol.

いいえ

トルコ

$88,956 Vol.

いいえ

ドイツ

$133,140 Vol.

いいえ

バーレーン

$57,368 Vol.

いいえ

オマーン

$33,086 Vol.

いいえ

いずれかのEU加盟国

$87,130 Vol.

いいえ

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces initiated major airstrikes against Iranian military and nuclear sites on February 28, 2026, sparking the ongoing conflict that defines trader consensus on additional countries joining by April 30. No new coalition partners like UAE or Saudi Arabia conducted verifiable strikes amid a fragile US-brokered ceasefire from early April and stalled nuclear talks in Islamabad. Late April developments, including US Central Command's April 30 briefing to President Trump on fresh strike options for Strait of Hormuz infrastructure and Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz's warning of imminent resumption, heightened tensions without prompting broader involvement. The US War Powers Resolution 60-day clock expired May 1, pressuring congressional authorization amid Hormuz blockade disputes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$3,651,056
終了日
2026/04/30
マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

提案された結果: いいえ

異議申し立てなし

最終結果: いいえ

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces initiated major airstrikes against Iranian military and nuclear sites on February 28, 2026, sparking the ongoing conflict that defines trader consensus on additional countries joining by April 30. No new coalition partners like UAE or Saudi Arabia conducted verifiable strikes amid a fragile US-brokered ceasefire from early April and stalled nuclear talks in Islamabad. Late April developments, including US Central Command's April 30 briefing to President Trump on fresh strike options for Strait of Hormuz infrastructure and Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz's warning of imminent resumption, heightened tensions without prompting broader involvement. The US War Powers Resolution 60-day clock expired May 1, pressuring congressional authorization amid Hormuz blockade disputes.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$3,651,056
終了日
2026/04/30
マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

提案された結果: いいえ

異議申し立てなし

最終結果: いいえ

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「4月30日までにイランに対して軍事行動を行うのはどの国ですか？」はPolymarket上の13個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「イギリス」で0%、次いで「ヨルダン」が0%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、0¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に0%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「4月30日までにイランに対して軍事行動を行うのはどの国ですか？」は$3.7 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Mar 23, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「4月30日までにイランに対して軍事行動を行うのはどの国ですか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている13個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「4月30日までにイランに対して軍事行動を行うのはどの国ですか？」の現在のリーダーは「イギリス」でわずか0%、「ヨルダン」が0%で僅差です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「4月30日までにイランに対して軍事行動を行うのはどの国ですか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。