Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a low implied probability for direct Iranian military action against Israel by March 31, shaped by de-escalation signals after October 2024 exchanges—Iran's October 1 missile and drone barrage drew Israel's limited October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites, sparing oil and nuclear facilities. Both nations have since emphasized restraint amid proxy battles, with Israel advancing against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, while Iran's economy strains under sanctions curb adventurism. US policy shifts post-Trump victory add diplomatic uncertainty, potentially via nuclear talks. Watch IAEA reports and UN sessions in early 2025 for escalation risks, though historical direct clashes remain rare.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$2,330,956 Vol.
UAE
73%
Saudi Arabia
91%
Bahrain
75%
Iraq
47%
Jordan
42%
Oman
11%
トルコ
7%
Azerbaijan
6%
シリア
4%
キプロス
4%
レバノン
4%
パキスタン
3%
Armenia
3%
イエメン
3%
Hungary
2%
アフガニスタン
1%
Spain
1%
Ukraine
1%
Italy
1%
Georgia
1%
イギリス
1%
インド
1%
Poland
1%
France
1%
Germany
1%
$2,330,956 Vol.
UAE
73%
Saudi Arabia
91%
Bahrain
75%
Iraq
47%
Jordan
42%
Oman
11%
トルコ
7%
Azerbaijan
6%
シリア
4%
キプロス
4%
レバノン
4%
パキスタン
3%
Armenia
3%
イエメン
3%
Hungary
2%
アフガニスタン
1%
Spain
1%
Ukraine
1%
Italy
1%
Georgia
1%
イギリス
1%
インド
1%
Poland
1%
France
1%
Germany
1%
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
マーケット開始日: Feb 28, 2026, 11:33 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a low implied probability for direct Iranian military action against Israel by March 31, shaped by de-escalation signals after October 2024 exchanges—Iran's October 1 missile and drone barrage drew Israel's limited October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites, sparing oil and nuclear facilities. Both nations have since emphasized restraint amid proxy battles, with Israel advancing against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, while Iran's economy strains under sanctions curb adventurism. US policy shifts post-Trump victory add diplomatic uncertainty, potentially via nuclear talks. Watch IAEA reports and UN sessions in early 2025 for escalation risks, though historical direct clashes remain rare.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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