Trader consensus reflects a 66% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling before 2027, anchored by Tehran's restrained response to Israel's October 26 airstrikes on military sites, which caused limited damage and avoided escalation despite prior missile exchanges. Supreme Leader Khamenei's firm control persists under President Pezeshkian's moderate leadership following the July election, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) effectively quelling dissent and no revival of mass protests since 2022. Economic sanctions and proxy engagements via Hezbollah and Houthis strain resources but have not triggered collapse, underscoring the regime's historical endurance amid geopolitical tensions and potential U.S. policy shifts post-election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$11,854,455 Vol.
$11,854,455 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
はい
$11,854,455 Vol.
$11,854,455 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects a 66% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling before 2027, anchored by Tehran's restrained response to Israel's October 26 airstrikes on military sites, which caused limited damage and avoided escalation despite prior missile exchanges. Supreme Leader Khamenei's firm control persists under President Pezeshkian's moderate leadership following the July election, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) effectively quelling dissent and no revival of mass protests since 2022. Economic sanctions and proxy engagements via Hezbollah and Houthis strain resources but have not triggered collapse, underscoring the regime's historical endurance amid geopolitical tensions and potential U.S. policy shifts post-election.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
音量
$11,854,455終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus reflects a 66% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling before 2027, anchored by Tehran's restrained response to Israel's October 26 airstrikes on military sites, which caused limited damage and avoided escalation despite prior missile exchanges. Supreme Leader Khamenei's firm control persists under President Pezeshkian's moderate leadership following the July election, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) effectively quelling dissent and no revival of mass protests since 2022. Economic sanctions and proxy engagements via Hezbollah and Houthis strain resources but have not triggered collapse, underscoring the regime's historical endurance amid geopolitical tensions and potential U.S. policy shifts post-election.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$11,854,455終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 66% implied probability against the Iranian regime falling before 2027, anchored by Tehran's restrained response to Israel's October 26 airstrikes on military sites, which caused limited damage and avoided escalation despite prior missile exchanges. Supreme Leader Khamenei's firm control persists under President Pezeshkian's moderate leadership following the July election, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) effectively quelling dissent and no revival of mass protests since 2022. Economic sanctions and proxy engagements via Hezbollah and Houthis strain resources but have not triggered collapse, underscoring the regime's historical endurance amid geopolitical tensions and potential U.S. policy shifts post-election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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