A US-brokered 10-day ceasefire that took effect on April 17 has halted Israeli ground advances in southern Lebanon, anchoring trader consensus at 72.5% against IDF forces crossing the Litani River by June 30. Israel destroyed the last operational bridge over the Litani—Qasmiyeh—on April 16 to block Hezbollah reinforcements, while holding a buffer zone roughly 10km inside Lebanon, well short of the river 30km from the border. March announcements by Defense Minister Israel Katz of occupying up to the Litani went unfulfilled amid de-escalation signals, with Lebanese civilians now crossing makeshift routes south despite warnings. Hezbollah's weakened state reduces escalation risks, though truce fragility and UN Resolution 1701 enforcement loom as potential market movers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$385,525 Vol.
$385,525 Vol.
2026/06/30
はい
$385,525 Vol.
$385,525 Vol.
2026/06/30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.A US-brokered 10-day ceasefire that took effect on April 17 has halted Israeli ground advances in southern Lebanon, anchoring trader consensus at 72.5% against IDF forces crossing the Litani River by June 30. Israel destroyed the last operational bridge over the Litani—Qasmiyeh—on April 16 to block Hezbollah reinforcements, while holding a buffer zone roughly 10km inside Lebanon, well short of the river 30km from the border. March announcements by Defense Minister Israel Katz of occupying up to the Litani went unfulfilled amid de-escalation signals, with Lebanese civilians now crossing makeshift routes south despite warnings. Hezbollah's weakened state reduces escalation risks, though truce fragility and UN Resolution 1701 enforcement loom as potential market movers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 17, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
音量
$385,525終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.A US-brokered 10-day ceasefire that took effect on April 17 has halted Israeli ground advances in southern Lebanon, anchoring trader consensus at 72.5% against IDF forces crossing the Litani River by June 30. Israel destroyed the last operational bridge over the Litani—Qasmiyeh—on April 16 to block Hezbollah reinforcements, while holding a buffer zone roughly 10km inside Lebanon, well short of the river 30km from the border. March announcements by Defense Minister Israel Katz of occupying up to the Litani went unfulfilled amid de-escalation signals, with Lebanese civilians now crossing makeshift routes south despite warnings. Hezbollah's weakened state reduces escalation risks, though truce fragility and UN Resolution 1701 enforcement loom as potential market movers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israeli military personnel cross the Litani River in Lebanon by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
“Israeli military personnel” refers to members of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) or any other official military units acting under the authority of the State of Israel. Intelligence or other non-military personnel will not count.
A “crossing” will be considered to have occurred if Israeli military personnel are confirmed to have physically traversed the Litani River in Lebanon at any point, including but not limited to by bridge, boat, swimming, wading, or temporary or permanent crossing.
Aerial insertion, parachute drops, helicopter landings, or other forms of aerial infiltration that do not involve Israeli military personnel physically traversing the Litani River will not qualify.
Mere presence on one bank of the Litani River, without confirmation that Israeli military personnel traversed the river to the opposite bank, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$385,529終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A US-brokered 10-day ceasefire that took effect on April 17 has halted Israeli ground advances in southern Lebanon, anchoring trader consensus at 72.5% against IDF forces crossing the Litani River by June 30. Israel destroyed the last operational bridge over the Litani—Qasmiyeh—on April 16 to block Hezbollah reinforcements, while holding a buffer zone roughly 10km inside Lebanon, well short of the river 30km from the border. March announcements by Defense Minister Israel Katz of occupying up to the Litani went unfulfilled amid de-escalation signals, with Lebanese civilians now crossing makeshift routes south despite warnings. Hezbollah's weakened state reduces escalation risks, though truce fragility and UN Resolution 1701 enforcement loom as potential market movers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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