Iran's enriched uranium stockpile reached a record 6,621 kg of enriched uranium as of early November 2024 per the latest IAEA report, with nearly 185 kg at 60% purity—close to weapons-grade—prompting international censure and warnings of proliferation risks. Diplomatic efforts to revive the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal remain stalled amid heightened tensions following Iran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel and Israel's retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26, which avoided nuclear facilities but underscored regional volatility. No public statements or negotiations indicate Iran agreeing to surrender its stockpile, with indirect US-Iran talks dormant since mid-2022. Traders watch the US presidential election outcome on November 5 and upcoming IAEA board meetings for potential shifts in sanctions or diplomacy.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
$19,045 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
April 30
11%
June 30
25%
December 31
33%
$19,045 Vol.
April 30
$560 Vol.
11%
June 30
$24 Vol.
25%
December 31
$18,461 Vol.
33%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's enriched uranium stockpile reached a record 6,621 kg of enriched uranium as of early November 2024 per the latest IAEA report, with nearly 185 kg at 60% purity—close to weapons-grade—prompting international censure and warnings of proliferation risks. Diplomatic efforts to revive the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal remain stalled amid heightened tensions following Iran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel and Israel's retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26, which avoided nuclear facilities but underscored regional volatility. No public statements or negotiations indicate Iran agreeing to surrender its stockpile, with indirect US-Iran talks dormant since mid-2022. Traders watch the US presidential election outcome on November 5 and upcoming IAEA board meetings for potential shifts in sanctions or diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
音量
$19,045終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's enriched uranium stockpile reached a record 6,621 kg of enriched uranium as of early November 2024 per the latest IAEA report, with nearly 185 kg at 60% purity—close to weapons-grade—prompting international censure and warnings of proliferation risks. Diplomatic efforts to revive the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal remain stalled amid heightened tensions following Iran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel and Israel's retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26, which avoided nuclear facilities but underscored regional volatility. No public statements or negotiations indicate Iran agreeing to surrender its stockpile, with indirect US-Iran talks dormant since mid-2022. Traders watch the US presidential election outcome on November 5 and upcoming IAEA board meetings for potential shifts in sanctions or diplomacy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$19,045終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's enriched uranium stockpile reached a record 6,621 kg of enriched uranium as of early November 2024 per the latest IAEA report, with nearly 185 kg at 60% purity—close to weapons-grade—prompting international censure and warnings of proliferation risks. Diplomatic efforts to revive the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal remain stalled amid heightened tensions following Iran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel and Israel's retaliatory airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26, which avoided nuclear facilities but underscored regional volatility. No public statements or negotiations indicate Iran agreeing to surrender its stockpile, with indirect US-Iran talks dormant since mid-2022. Traders watch the US presidential election outcome on November 5 and upcoming IAEA board meetings for potential shifts in sanctions or diplomacy.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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