Recent Knesset polls show Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition projected at 49 seats against an opposition bloc's stable 61-seat majority, underscoring ongoing political weakness amid the fragile Iran war ceasefire and Gaza operations. His long-running corruption trial resumed April 12 after war powers expired, though testimony was delayed for security reasons, with hearings continuing into late April; this adds pressure without immediate ouster risk. The March 2026 budget passage averted a snap election, but the next legislative vote is due by October 27, heightening no-confidence vote or coalition collapse risks. Traders price a 44% implied probability for Netanyahu out by December 31—reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on these vulnerabilities—while nearer-term outcomes like June 30 trade at just 6%, betting on wartime cohesion holding short-term.