Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges over the Strait of Hormuz, including reported American strikes on targets near Hengam Island in mid-July 2026, have shaped trader views on territorial control. Iran maintains naval and missile assets on the island and neighboring features as part of its strategy to regulate maritime traffic through the chokepoint, which carries roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies. Analysts note that any forcible change in administration would require a large-scale amphibious operation vulnerable to Iranian artillery, drones, and small-boat forces. With the conflict unresolved and no confirmed shift in sovereignty since the crisis began in February, markets assign low probability to Hengam leaving Iranian hands by late August or similar near-term deadlines. Diplomatic talks or further escalation could still alter the outlook before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$120,750 Vol.
2026/08/31
8月31日
1%
$120,750 Vol.
8月31日
$93,202 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges over the Strait of Hormuz, including reported American strikes on targets near Hengam Island in mid-July 2026, have shaped trader views on territorial control. Iran maintains naval and missile assets on the island and neighboring features as part of its strategy to regulate maritime traffic through the chokepoint, which carries roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies. Analysts note that any forcible change in administration would require a large-scale amphibious operation vulnerable to Iranian artillery, drones, and small-boat forces. With the conflict unresolved and no confirmed shift in sovereignty since the crisis began in February, markets assign low probability to Hengam leaving Iranian hands by late August or similar near-term deadlines. Diplomatic talks or further escalation could still alter the outlook before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
音量
$120,750終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges over the Strait of Hormuz, including reported American strikes on targets near Hengam Island in mid-July 2026, have shaped trader views on territorial control. Iran maintains naval and missile assets on the island and neighboring features as part of its strategy to regulate maritime traffic through the chokepoint, which carries roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies. Analysts note that any forcible change in administration would require a large-scale amphibious operation vulnerable to Iranian artillery, drones, and small-boat forces. With the conflict unresolved and no confirmed shift in sovereignty since the crisis began in February, markets assign low probability to Hengam leaving Iranian hands by late August or similar near-term deadlines. Diplomatic talks or further escalation could still alter the outlook before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$120,750終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges over the Strait of Hormuz, including reported American strikes on targets near Hengam Island in mid-July 2026, have shaped trader views on territorial control. Iran maintains naval and missile assets on the island and neighboring features as part of its strategy to regulate maritime traffic through the chokepoint, which carries roughly one-fifth of global oil supplies. Analysts note that any forcible change in administration would require a large-scale amphibious operation vulnerable to Iranian artillery, drones, and small-boat forces. With the conflict unresolved and no confirmed shift in sovereignty since the crisis began in February, markets assign low probability to Hengam leaving Iranian hands by late August or similar near-term deadlines. Diplomatic talks or further escalation could still alter the outlook before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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