Recent U.S. airstrikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian military infrastructure on Greater Tunb, including cruise missile sites and coastal defenses, amid broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes. Iran has maintained de facto control of the island since its 1971 seizure, with the UAE continuing to assert sovereignty claims through diplomatic channels. These strikes degraded specific Iranian capabilities but produced no reported shift in territorial administration or occupation. Trader consensus reflected in market pricing assigns negligible probability to Iranian loss of control by the late-August 2026 resolution date, consistent with the absence of ground operations, negotiated withdrawal, or other verifiable mechanisms that would alter the status quo in the brief remaining window. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments could still influence outcomes before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$50,409 Vol.
2026/08/31
8月31日
1%
$50,409 Vol.
8月31日
$27,900 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. airstrikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian military infrastructure on Greater Tunb, including cruise missile sites and coastal defenses, amid broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes. Iran has maintained de facto control of the island since its 1971 seizure, with the UAE continuing to assert sovereignty claims through diplomatic channels. These strikes degraded specific Iranian capabilities but produced no reported shift in territorial administration or occupation. Trader consensus reflected in market pricing assigns negligible probability to Iranian loss of control by the late-August 2026 resolution date, consistent with the absence of ground operations, negotiated withdrawal, or other verifiable mechanisms that would alter the status quo in the brief remaining window. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments could still influence outcomes before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ET
音量
$50,409終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. airstrikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian military infrastructure on Greater Tunb, including cruise missile sites and coastal defenses, amid broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes. Iran has maintained de facto control of the island since its 1971 seizure, with the UAE continuing to assert sovereignty claims through diplomatic channels. These strikes degraded specific Iranian capabilities but produced no reported shift in territorial administration or occupation. Trader consensus reflected in market pricing assigns negligible probability to Iranian loss of control by the late-August 2026 resolution date, consistent with the absence of ground operations, negotiated withdrawal, or other verifiable mechanisms that would alter the status quo in the brief remaining window. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments could still influence outcomes before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$50,409終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. airstrikes in July 2026 targeted Iranian military infrastructure on Greater Tunb, including cruise missile sites and coastal defenses, amid broader escalation over Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes. Iran has maintained de facto control of the island since its 1971 seizure, with the UAE continuing to assert sovereignty claims through diplomatic channels. These strikes degraded specific Iranian capabilities but produced no reported shift in territorial administration or occupation. Trader consensus reflected in market pricing assigns negligible probability to Iranian loss of control by the late-August 2026 resolution date, consistent with the absence of ground operations, negotiated withdrawal, or other verifiable mechanisms that would alter the status quo in the brief remaining window. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments could still influence outcomes before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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