Recent US-Iran hostilities in the Gulf, centered on Strait of Hormuz access and naval blockades, have featured repeated cycles of strikes, retaliatory actions, and short-lived pauses. A June 17 memorandum of understanding outlined an interim ceasefire and reopened shipping lanes, yet violations prompted US strikes on Iranian military sites in late June, followed by Iranian responses and mutual stand-down agreements announced around June 28. Early July saw further tit-for-tat exchanges collapse the interim deal, prompting President Trump to pause offensive operations after two days of strikes amid funeral proceedings for Iran's former supreme leader and renewed diplomatic outreach. Technical talks in Qatar and Gulf state mediation continue, with traders tracking any formal US announcement halting further military action against Iranian targets. Upcoming negotiation deadlines and potential Iranian compliance on uranium stockpile limits or shipping guarantees remain key variables that could trigger resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日US offensive military operations against Iran remain suspended through end of July
By July 30, the US had maintained its suspension of offensive military operations against Iran, with no new strikes announced. This sustained cessation confirmed the market's resolution to 100% Yes for the July 31 outcome.
US officially halts military strikes on Iran amid diplomatic pressure
July 31 surges to 100%63%
The US formally paused military operations against Iran, confirmed by official statements and cessation of airstrikes, leading to a full market resolution to "Yes" for all outcome dates as the US ceased offensive military action.
US Central Command stops Iranian missile attack amid halted US strikes
August 15 rises to 100%4%
On July 28, 2026, US Central Command announced it stopped an Iranian missile attack, coinciding with the US halting offensive strikes. This event confirmed the cessation of active US offensive military operations, driving the market price to 100% for all outcomes.
US Halts Military Strikes on Iran Amid Growing Diplomatic Pressure
Yes surges to 100%60%
The US officially paused military operations against Iran, confirmed by both US and Iranian officials, marking a clear and unambiguous cessation of offensive military action, which led the market to fully price in a 'Yes' outcome for all resolution dates.
US pauses new strikes, Iran says no current negotiations with the US
August 15 surges to 97%36%
President Trump publicly announced the halt of US strikes on Iran at the Iranian regime's request, warning of resumption if no ceasefire deal is reached, confirming a present cessation of offensive military action.
Iran halts retaliatory strikes following US bombing pause
August 31 dips to 72%3%
Iran announced it had stopped retaliatory strikes in response to the US pause in bombing, indicating a de-escalation and supporting the likelihood of a formal US announcement to halt offensive operations.
Iran announces halt to retaliatory strikes contingent on US bombing pause
August 31 drops to 67%8%
On July 27, 2026, Iranian military officials publicly stated they would suspend retaliatory strikes as long as the US continued its bombing pause, indicating a mutual de-escalation. This announcement supported market optimism about a general suspension of offensive military actions by the US, influencing price rises for the August 31 and August 15 outcomes.
Iran announces suspension of attacks as long as US pauses airstrikes
August 15 surges to 98%37%
A senior Iranian official publicly stated that Iran would suspend its military attacks as long as the United States continues to pause its bombing campaign, confirming a mutual cessation of offensive operations and strongly influencing the market to reach 100% Yes.
US President Trump calls off major expansion of attacks on Iran, continuing strike pause
July 31 surges to 95%42%
President Trump officially called off plans to expand US attacks on Iran on July 27, 2026, following advisor warnings and amid concerns about missile stockpiles. This declarative decision by the US government confirmed the suspension of offensive military operations, solidifying market certainty of a halt.
President Trump confirms US halted strikes on Iran at regime's request
July 31 surges to 94%56%
President Trump publicly stated that the US had halted strikes on Iran following a request from the Iranian regime, warning that attacks would resume if no ceasefire deal was reached. This clear official statement confirmed the suspension of offensive military action, solidifying market confidence.
Iran halts retaliatory strikes as US gives diplomacy 'more room'
July 31 surges to 95%56%
On July 27, 2026, Iran announced it had halted retaliatory strikes against US targets, with an Iranian army spokesman stating their strategy was retaliatory and now paused. This official statement, coupled with the US pause, indicated a mutual cessation of offensive military actions, driving market prices sharply higher.
US pauses strikes on Iran amid diplomatic efforts and missile stock concerns
August 15 surges to 97%36%
The US military paused offensive strikes on Iran for multiple days, citing concerns over missile stockpiles and ongoing diplomatic talks. This extended pause was widely reported and contributed to the market reaching full certainty of a halt in offensive operations.
President Trump announces halt to strikes on Iran at regime's request
August 15 surges to 98%37%
President Trump publicly stated that the US had halted strikes on Iran following a request from the Iranian regime, clearly communicating a present cessation of offensive military action, which solidified market confidence in a US pause.
US Central Command confirms operations on hold as bombing campaign pauses
August 31 jumps to 75%8%
A Department of Defense source confirmed on July 26, 2026, that US military operations against Iran were on hold following a sustained bombing campaign. This official confirmation reinforced market expectations of a halt in offensive military action, contributing to price increases for the August 31 and August 15 outcomes.
US pauses strikes on Iranian targets for second consecutive day amid missile stock concerns
July 31 jumps to 51%14%
The US military paused strikes on Iran for a second day, partly due to concerns about interceptor missile stockpiles. This continued pause reinforced market expectations of a suspension of offensive operations.
US pauses Iran strikes for second straight day as diplomacy advances
August 31 surges to 97%27%
The US continued its pause in offensive strikes against Iran for a second consecutive day, with Iranian officials also halting retaliatory operations. This mutual suspension of attacks was linked to diplomatic efforts and was interpreted by the market as a general cessation of US offensive military action against Iran, causing a sharp price increase.
US military pause and diplomatic talks raise hopes for de-escalation with Iran
August 15 jumps to 62%9%
The US military's pause in airstrikes combined with ongoing diplomatic efforts was seen as a positive signal towards ending offensive operations, contributing to a rise in market prices for the August 15 and August 31 outcomes.
Trump administration officially pauses US strikes in Iran after nearly two weeks of attacks
July 31 surges to 94%43%
The Trump administration publicly announced a pause in US strikes against Iran, marking a significant shift from continuous offensive operations to a suspension. This official declaration was pivotal in the market's move to 100% Yes.
US operations on hold after 13 straight nights of strikes against Iran
August 31 surges to 100%30%
A Department of Defense source confirmed that US military operations against Iran were on hold after 13 consecutive nights of strikes, signaling a formal suspension of offensive military action. This announcement led to a near-complete market price surge to 100%, reflecting high confidence in the cessation of US offensive operations.
US operations on hold as military strikes against Iran pause
August 15 surges to 97%36%
A Department of Defense source confirmed that US military operations against Iran were on hold after 13 consecutive nights of strikes, signaling a de facto suspension of offensive actions and boosting market confidence in a ceasefire.
US pauses strikes on Iranian targets for second consecutive day amid military concerns
August 31 rises to 77%2%
The US continued its pause on offensive strikes against Iran, reportedly due to concerns about interceptor missile stockpiles and military risks, reinforcing the official cessation of offensive operations and boosting market confidence in a US halt.
US operations against Iran officially on hold, no new strikes announced
August 31 surges to 74%24%
The US Department of Defense confirmed that military operations were paused, with no new strikes announced for two nights, reinforcing market expectations of a suspension of offensive actions against Iran.
US military operations against Iran officially on hold after 13 consecutive nights of strikes
August 31 jumps to 84%14%
A Department of Defense source confirmed that US operations against Iran were "on a hold," with no new strikes announced for two nights. This official confirmation significantly boosted market confidence in a cessation of offensive military action.
US pauses attacks on Iran for a second straight day amid mediation efforts
August 31 rises to 79%4%
The United States halted offensive strikes on Iran for a second consecutive day, coinciding with Tehran's similar pause and ongoing mediation attempts to salvage a fragile ceasefire. This development significantly increased market confidence in a potential official halt announcement.
US Department of Defense confirms operations on hold against Iran
August 31 rises to 75%3%
Following the initial pause, a Department of Defense source reiterated on July 26 that US military operations against Iran were on hold, reinforcing the market's confidence in a suspension of offensive actions. This contributed to further price increases across all market options.
Iran will halt attacks as long as US maintains pause, senior Iranian official says
August 31 rises to 77%3%
A senior Iranian official publicly stated that Iran would maintain its halt on attacks as long as the US continues its pause in offensive operations. This official confirmation of a reciprocal ceasefire further boosted market confidence in a halt to US offensive military action against Iran.
US pauses Iran attacks after Trump advised to halt bombing
August 31 jumps to 84%7%
Top US military commanders advised President Trump that the campaign had reached its limits, leading to a decision to hold strikes on Iran, reflecting a de facto suspension of offensive operations.
US pauses bombing campaign on Iran after nearly two weeks of strikes
August 31 jumps to 69%7%
The US Department of Defense confirmed a pause in offensive strikes against Iran, marking the first halt in nearly two weeks of continuous attacks. This pause increased market expectations of a potential official announcement halting offensive operations.
US military pauses strikes on Iran after nearly two weeks of consecutive attacks
July 31 jumps to 34%13%
A Department of Defense source confirmed that US operations against Iran were "on a hold," marking the first pause after 13 straight nights of strikes, signaling a potential cessation of offensive military action and causing market prices to rise sharply.
US Central Command reports no new strikes on Iran, signaling operational pause
August 31 jumps to 77%9%
US Central Command made no announcements of new strikes against Iran after 13 consecutive nights of attacks, indicating a possible pause in offensive military actions. This apparent halt increased market confidence that an official announcement of suspension might follow, pushing prices higher for the August 31 and August 15 outcomes.
US military does not announce new Iran strikes for first time in 2 weeks
July 31 surges to 34%15%
The US Department of Defense confirmed a pause in military strikes against Iran after nearly two weeks of continuous attacks, indicating a potential shift towards cessation of offensive operations, which caused market prices to rise.
US military pauses bombing campaign on Iran after nearly two weeks of strikes
August 15 rises to 57%4%
The US Department of Defense confirmed a hold on offensive operations against Iran, marking the first pause in nearly two weeks. This official suspension was interpreted by the market as a cessation of US offensive military action, driving prices higher for the August 15 and August 31 outcomes.
Iran halts retaliatory attacks after US stops strikes for two nights
Following the US pause in strikes, Iran announced it had halted its retaliatory attacks, signaling a de-escalation phase. This development reinforced market expectations of a suspension of offensive military actions by the US.
US military pauses bombing campaign on Iran after nearly two weeks of strikes
August 31 rises to 70%3%
A Department of Defense source confirmed that US operations against Iran were "on a hold" after 13 consecutive nights of strikes, marking the first pause in offensive military action. This official pause was a key signal to the market that the US was suspending offensive operations, driving prices higher.
US military pauses Iran strikes after nearly two weeks of continuous attacks
July 31 jumps to 36%12%
The US Department of Defense announced a hold on offensive military operations against Iran after 13 consecutive nights of strikes, signaling a temporary cessation of US offensive actions. This official pause was a critical development that shifted market expectations toward a resolution of 'Yes'.
US military pauses bombing campaign against Iran after nearly two weeks of strikes
July 31 surges to 41%17%
On July 25, 2026, the US Department of Defense confirmed that offensive operations against Iran were "on a hold," marking the first pause in nearly two weeks of continuous strikes. This official announcement signaled a suspension of US offensive military action, directly impacting market prices upward.
US military does not announce new Iran strikes for first time in 2 weeks
August 31 surges to 95%28%
For the first time in nearly two weeks, the US military did not announce new strikes against Iran, indicating a pause in offensive operations. This development was interpreted as a de-escalation, causing a significant jump in market prices reflecting increased confidence in a halt to US offensive action.
US military operations against Iran put on hold after nearly two weeks of strikes
July 31 surges to 37%17%
The Department of Defense confirmed that US offensive operations against Iran were on hold, marking the first pause after nearly two weeks of continuous strikes. This official announcement was a clear signal of cessation, driving market prices sharply higher.
US President Trump meets advisers to discuss Iran operations amid pause in strikes
July 31 surges to 37%15%
President Trump met with senior advisers to consider options for US military operations in Iran, coinciding with a pause in strikes since July 24. This meeting and the pause indicated a potential shift in US offensive posture, influencing market prices upward.
US President Trump meets advisers to discuss Iran operations amid pause in strikes
August 31 jumps to 67%5%
President Trump held a meeting with senior advisers to consider options for US military operations in Iran, reportedly ordering a hold on strikes shortly after an Omani delegation arrived in Tehran to discuss reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This raised market expectations of a possible halt announcement.
US Army announces end of new wave of military operations against Iranian targets
Yes plunges to 7%55%
The US Army announced the conclusion of its latest round of military operations targeting sites inside Iran, marking a potential pause in offensive actions. This announcement may have influenced market sentiment, though the broader campaign continued.
US military confirms end of new wave of strikes on Iranian targets
August 31 rises to 67%3%
The US Department of Defense confirmed the conclusion of a new wave of precision air strikes against Iranian military sites, stating that military objectives were achieved and signaling a possible suspension of offensive operations. This official confirmation supported market optimism for a halt in US offensive actions against Iran by August 31, 2026.
US military announces end of latest wave of strikes against Iran
August 31 jumps to 72%7%
The US Department of Defense officially announced the conclusion of its latest round of precision airstrikes targeting Iranian military sites, signaling a temporary pause in offensive operations. This announcement contributed to increased market confidence in a potential halt to US offensive actions.
US Department of Defense confirms end of new wave of strikes on Iranian targets
August 31 rises to 66%3%
The US Department of Defense officially confirmed the conclusion of a new wave of precision air strikes against Iranian military infrastructure, reinforcing market expectations of a suspension in offensive operations. This contributed to a steady rise in the market price for the August 31 outcome.
US Army announces end of new wave of military operations against Iranian targets
July 24 plunges to 5%52%
The US Army announced the conclusion of its latest round of military operations targeting sites inside Iran, marking a partial suspension of offensive action. This announcement, while not a full cessation, contributed to the market's shift toward 'No' as the resolution criteria required a clear, official end or suspension of offensive military action.
US Army announces end of new wave of military operations against Iranian targets
July 31 rises to 27%4%
On July 23, 2026, the US Department of Defense officially announced the conclusion of its latest military operations targeting Iran, marking a formal end to a wave of offensive actions. This announcement contributed to the market's rising confidence in a suspension of US offensive military action against Iran.
US Army announces end of new wave of military operations against Iranian targets
August 31 jumps to 70%7%
The US Department of Defense officially announced the conclusion of its latest round of military strikes targeting Iranian military sites, indicating a pause or end to offensive operations. This announcement contributed to a rise in market prices as it signaled a cessation of active US offensive military action against Iran.
US military announces end of latest wave of strikes on Iran after 11 consecutive nights
August 31 rises to 66%1%
The US military declared the conclusion of its latest round of strikes on Iran, marking the end of 11 successive nights of offensive operations. This announcement indicated a pause in active US military attacks, supporting market expectations of a halt in offensive actions.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirms formal end of US offensive military operations against Iran
Marco Rubio officially notified Congress and publicly confirmed that the US offensive military operation 'Epic Fury' against Iran had ended, marking a formal cessation of offensive military action. This clear and official statement directly aligns with the market's resolution criteria for a halt in US offensive operations.
Iranian military advisor warns of full-scale offensive if US strikes continue
August 31 jumps to 62%8%
Iran threatened to resume full-scale offensive operations if US strikes persisted, signaling ongoing hostilities and no US cessation. This statement maintained market skepticism about a US halt announcement.
US conducts eighth consecutive night of strikes on Iran targeting military sites
August 31 rises to 65%4%
US Central Command announced an eighth consecutive night of strikes aimed at degrading Iran's military capabilities, reinforcing the ongoing offensive campaign and sustaining market expectations of continued US military pressure.
US begins ninth night of strikes as Iran launches new missile wave
August 31 rises to 64%3%
The US continued nightly strikes on Iran, while Iran launched missile attacks, escalating the conflict. This ongoing offensive activity by the US indicated no official halt announcement, contributing to market price declines for a cessation.
US military completes seventh consecutive night of strikes against Iran
July 31 plunges to 25%31%
The US Central Command announced the completion of seven consecutive nights of strikes against Iran, targeting military and surveillance sites, signaling an ongoing offensive campaign. This sustained military action initially kept market prices low due to continued hostilities.
Iran suspends commitments under memorandum of understanding amid renewed conflict
August 31 plunges to 23%34%
Iranian officials declared suspension of their commitments under the ceasefire memorandum, escalating tensions and signaling a breakdown in diplomatic efforts, which contributed to market uncertainty about the continuation of hostilities.
Iran warns of full-scale offensive if US strikes continue
A senior military advisor to Iran's supreme leader warned that Iran would resume full-scale offensive operations if US strikes persisted, signaling escalation risks and sustaining market uncertainty about the conflict's duration.
US CENTCOM confirms strike on Iran’s Chabahar port surveillance facility
August 31 surges to 70%20%
CENTCOM announced a strike on a surveillance tower in Chabahar, Iran, targeting IRGC maritime surveillance to protect navigation in the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz. This offensive action increased market expectations of continued US military operations against Iran.
US Central Command completes seventh consecutive night of strikes against Iran
July 31 plunges to 25%31%
The US military conducted its seventh straight night of offensive strikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure, signaling an ongoing campaign to degrade Iran's capabilities and maintain pressure. This sustained offensive contributed to initial market uncertainty about a halt in operations.
US military completes seventh consecutive night of strikes against Iran
August 31 jumps to 64%14%
The US Central Command announced the completion of seven straight nights of military strikes against Iran, signaling ongoing offensive operations and maintaining pressure on Tehran. This sustained campaign underscored the US commitment to offensive action at that time, keeping market prices moderate.
US expands strikes on Iran to multiple sites amid fragile ceasefire collapse
August 31 rises to 57%3%
US forces launched strikes across central and southern Iran, including infrastructure and military targets, signaling no suspension of offensive operations. CENTCOM confirmed continued degradation of Iranian military capabilities, which kept market prices low for a halt announcement.
US renews strikes on Iran and reimposes naval blockade amid fragile truce collapse
August 31 surges to 77%27%
The US resumed daily strikes on Iran and reinstated a naval blockade after a fragile ceasefire broke down, escalating hostilities and increasing uncertainty about the duration and objectives of the campaign. This escalation initially lowered market confidence in a halt to offensive operations.
Two US service members killed in Iranian attacks in Jordan, US retaliates with strikes
August 31 plunges to 52%18%
Iranian missile and drone attacks in Jordan killed two US soldiers and left one missing, prompting immediate US retaliatory strikes against Iranian military targets. This event marked the first US military fatalities since March, escalating hostilities and reducing near-term ceasefire prospects.
US Central Command announces eighth consecutive night of strikes on Iran
August 31 dips to 66%3%
CENTCOM reported another night of US strikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure, reinforcing the continuation of offensive operations and absence of any US announcement to halt such actions.
Iranian senior military adviser warns of full-scale offensive if US strikes continue
Mohsen Rezaei warned that Iran would escalate to full-scale offensive operations if US strikes persisted beyond two to three days, signaling heightened tensions but no US indication of halting offensive actions.
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