Ongoing US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, including renewed attacks on commercial shipping in July 2026 and US enforcement of a naval blockade, have kept focus on Iranian islands such as Hormuz, Qeshm, and Greater Tunb that Iran uses to project control. Iran and Oman held talks through early August on new shipping route coordinates, with understandings reportedly nearing finalization, though Washington has rejected any arrangements blocking US or Israeli vessels. US Central Command conducted strikes on Iranian coastal defenses and missile sites on Greater Tunb in mid-July, while Iran continues checkpoints and demands for approvals or fees on transit. These diplomatic and military developments, alongside the broader 2026 crisis that began with Iranian assertions of sovereignty following earlier US and Israeli operations, shape trader assessments of whether external forces could alter control of specific islands like Hormuz before any resolution date.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$61,394 Vol.
2026/08/31
8月31日
1%
$61,394 Vol.
8月31日
$49,657 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, including renewed attacks on commercial shipping in July 2026 and US enforcement of a naval blockade, have kept focus on Iranian islands such as Hormuz, Qeshm, and Greater Tunb that Iran uses to project control. Iran and Oman held talks through early August on new shipping route coordinates, with understandings reportedly nearing finalization, though Washington has rejected any arrangements blocking US or Israeli vessels. US Central Command conducted strikes on Iranian coastal defenses and missile sites on Greater Tunb in mid-July, while Iran continues checkpoints and demands for approvals or fees on transit. These diplomatic and military developments, alongside the broader 2026 crisis that began with Iranian assertions of sovereignty following earlier US and Israeli operations, shape trader assessments of whether external forces could alter control of specific islands like Hormuz before any resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
音量
$61,394終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, including renewed attacks on commercial shipping in July 2026 and US enforcement of a naval blockade, have kept focus on Iranian islands such as Hormuz, Qeshm, and Greater Tunb that Iran uses to project control. Iran and Oman held talks through early August on new shipping route coordinates, with understandings reportedly nearing finalization, though Washington has rejected any arrangements blocking US or Israeli vessels. US Central Command conducted strikes on Iranian coastal defenses and missile sites on Greater Tunb in mid-July, while Iran continues checkpoints and demands for approvals or fees on transit. These diplomatic and military developments, alongside the broader 2026 crisis that began with Iranian assertions of sovereignty following earlier US and Israeli operations, shape trader assessments of whether external forces could alter control of specific islands like Hormuz before any resolution date.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$61,394終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz, including renewed attacks on commercial shipping in July 2026 and US enforcement of a naval blockade, have kept focus on Iranian islands such as Hormuz, Qeshm, and Greater Tunb that Iran uses to project control. Iran and Oman held talks through early August on new shipping route coordinates, with understandings reportedly nearing finalization, though Washington has rejected any arrangements blocking US or Israeli vessels. US Central Command conducted strikes on Iranian coastal defenses and missile sites on Greater Tunb in mid-July, while Iran continues checkpoints and demands for approvals or fees on transit. These diplomatic and military developments, alongside the broader 2026 crisis that began with Iranian assertions of sovereignty following earlier US and Israeli operations, shape trader assessments of whether external forces could alter control of specific islands like Hormuz before any resolution date.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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