**Ongoing military operations along Yemen’s Red Sea coast continue to shape risk assessments for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.** Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces launched a counteroffensive in early October 2026, claiming recapture of key coastal positions including areas near Dhubab, Mokha, and Mayyun (Perim) Island that Houthis seized in September. Houthi sources dispute these gains and have continued missile and drone strikes, including recent attacks on Saudi targets. Shipping traffic remains disrupted, with volumes down sharply from pre-2023 levels as many vessels reroute around the Cape of Good Hope amid elevated insurance costs and security advisories, though no formal closure has been declared and limited transits persist. These competing territorial claims and persistent attack risks sustain trader focus on the potential for sustained or renewed effective disruption through year-end.