Vladimir Putin’s position remains secure through the end of 2026 due to the six-year term he secured in the March 2024 election, which runs until 2030, and 2020 constitutional amendments that reset term limits to allow potential service until 2036. He continues to exercise full executive authority, including recent state visits and domestic policy meetings, while maintaining high approval ratings and tight control over security services, the legislature, and regional elites. No credible public signals of voluntary resignation, health-related incapacity, or organized challenges capable of removing him have emerged in recent months. The absence of a designated successor further reduces the likelihood of an abrupt transition within the short window to December 2026, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the 88.5% implied probability for “No.”