Putin’s firm grip on Russia’s political institutions, reinforced by 2020 constitutional changes that reset term limits and enable him to remain in office until 2036, underpins trader expectations that he will still hold the presidency through the end of 2026. As of mid-June 2026, he continues to lead actively, delivering keynote addresses at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and maintaining a hardline stance on the Ukraine conflict without any announced succession plans or signs of incapacity. Recent public appearances and official statements show no meaningful internal challenges or health developments that would trigger an abrupt exit in the remaining six months. While isolated reports note some elite frustration amid economic pressures, these have not translated into organized moves against his leadership, leaving the near-term probability of removal low in the eyes of market participants.