Russia's deepening entanglement in the Ukraine conflict, with recent slow territorial gains in Donetsk amid estimated casualties over 600,000 and persistent manpower shortages, underpins trader consensus pricing "No" at 87% for a new invasion in 2026. President Putin's December 19 press conference explicitly rejected plans to attack NATO states like Poland or the Baltics, emphasizing focus on Ukraine objectives. The U.S. election of President-elect Trump, promising swift peace negotiations, has fueled de-escalation expectations, while Western sanctions curb military-industrial output and NATO's bolstered eastern defenses raise invasion costs. Without a rapid Ukrainian collapse or major Western retrenchment, traders assess Russia's overextension as a key barrier to expansion.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$51,377 Vol.
$51,377 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
はい
$51,377 Vol.
$51,377 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's deepening entanglement in the Ukraine conflict, with recent slow territorial gains in Donetsk amid estimated casualties over 600,000 and persistent manpower shortages, underpins trader consensus pricing "No" at 87% for a new invasion in 2026. President Putin's December 19 press conference explicitly rejected plans to attack NATO states like Poland or the Baltics, emphasizing focus on Ukraine objectives. The U.S. election of President-elect Trump, promising swift peace negotiations, has fueled de-escalation expectations, while Western sanctions curb military-industrial output and NATO's bolstered eastern defenses raise invasion costs. Without a rapid Ukrainian collapse or major Western retrenchment, traders assess Russia's overextension as a key barrier to expansion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
音量
$51,377終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's deepening entanglement in the Ukraine conflict, with recent slow territorial gains in Donetsk amid estimated casualties over 600,000 and persistent manpower shortages, underpins trader consensus pricing "No" at 87% for a new invasion in 2026. President Putin's December 19 press conference explicitly rejected plans to attack NATO states like Poland or the Baltics, emphasizing focus on Ukraine objectives. The U.S. election of President-elect Trump, promising swift peace negotiations, has fueled de-escalation expectations, while Western sanctions curb military-industrial output and NATO's bolstered eastern defenses raise invasion costs. Without a rapid Ukrainian collapse or major Western retrenchment, traders assess Russia's overextension as a key barrier to expansion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$51,377終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's deepening entanglement in the Ukraine conflict, with recent slow territorial gains in Donetsk amid estimated casualties over 600,000 and persistent manpower shortages, underpins trader consensus pricing "No" at 87% for a new invasion in 2026. President Putin's December 19 press conference explicitly rejected plans to attack NATO states like Poland or the Baltics, emphasizing focus on Ukraine objectives. The U.S. election of President-elect Trump, promising swift peace negotiations, has fueled de-escalation expectations, while Western sanctions curb military-industrial output and NATO's bolstered eastern defenses raise invasion costs. Without a rapid Ukrainian collapse or major Western retrenchment, traders assess Russia's overextension as a key barrier to expansion.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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