Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31 at just 0.2%, reflecting stalled U.S.-brokered trilateral talks amid Russia's ongoing spring offensive launched last week, which has seen mutual strikes and front-line advances claimed by both sides. Key sticking points remain unresolved, including territorial concessions in Donbas and Ukraine's NATO aspirations, with Moscow rejecting Kyiv's recent ceasefire offer and pausing negotiations partly due to Middle East escalations diverting attention. Zelenskiy urged sustained pressure on Russia after U.S. talks concluded March 22, while Putin signals no rush without major Ukrainian retreats. With the deadline imminent and no scheduled summits or breakthroughs announced, traders see negligible odds of de-escalation; only a surprise bilateral deal or external diplomatic intervention could shift this in the final days.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$28,847,926 Vol.
$28,847,926 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
はい
$28,847,926 Vol.
$28,847,926 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31 at just 0.2%, reflecting stalled U.S.-brokered trilateral talks amid Russia's ongoing spring offensive launched last week, which has seen mutual strikes and front-line advances claimed by both sides. Key sticking points remain unresolved, including territorial concessions in Donbas and Ukraine's NATO aspirations, with Moscow rejecting Kyiv's recent ceasefire offer and pausing negotiations partly due to Middle East escalations diverting attention. Zelenskiy urged sustained pressure on Russia after U.S. talks concluded March 22, while Putin signals no rush without major Ukrainian retreats. With the deadline imminent and no scheduled summits or breakthroughs announced, traders see negligible odds of de-escalation; only a surprise bilateral deal or external diplomatic intervention could shift this in the final days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
マーケット開始日： Jul 10, 2025, 12:43 PM ET
音量
$28,847,926終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jul 10, 2025, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31 at just 0.2%, reflecting stalled U.S.-brokered trilateral talks amid Russia's ongoing spring offensive launched last week, which has seen mutual strikes and front-line advances claimed by both sides. Key sticking points remain unresolved, including territorial concessions in Donbas and Ukraine's NATO aspirations, with Moscow rejecting Kyiv's recent ceasefire offer and pausing negotiations partly due to Middle East escalations diverting attention. Zelenskiy urged sustained pressure on Russia after U.S. talks concluded March 22, while Putin signals no rush without major Ukrainian retreats. With the deadline imminent and no scheduled summits or breakthroughs announced, traders see negligible odds of de-escalation; only a surprise bilateral deal or external diplomatic intervention could shift this in the final days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
音量
$28,847,926終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jul 10, 2025, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31 at just 0.2%, reflecting stalled U.S.-brokered trilateral talks amid Russia's ongoing spring offensive launched last week, which has seen mutual strikes and front-line advances claimed by both sides. Key sticking points remain unresolved, including territorial concessions in Donbas and Ukraine's NATO aspirations, with Moscow rejecting Kyiv's recent ceasefire offer and pausing negotiations partly due to Middle East escalations diverting attention. Zelenskiy urged sustained pressure on Russia after U.S. talks concluded March 22, while Putin signals no rush without major Ukrainian retreats. With the deadline imminent and no scheduled summits or breakthroughs announced, traders see negligible odds of de-escalation; only a surprise bilateral deal or external diplomatic intervention could shift this in the final days.
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