Traders' near-unanimous 99.9% implied probability on no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31 stems from persistent military actions, including Russian strikes killing four in Ukrainian cities two days ago, and stalled US-brokered peace talks. Recent diplomatic efforts—such as Florida meetings on March 22 and Geneva sessions in February—have yielded no breakthroughs on core issues like territorial concessions in Donetsk, demilitarized zone control, and postwar security guarantees, with Ukraine rejecting Moscow's demands. Front-line escalations continue amid a situational pause in negotiations, leaving no viable path to agreement before the deadline. Only an unforeseen late-breaking diplomatic summit or unilateral concession could shift odds at this stage.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$29,052,178 Vol.
$29,052,178 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
はい
$29,052,178 Vol.
$29,052,178 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Traders' near-unanimous 99.9% implied probability on no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31 stems from persistent military actions, including Russian strikes killing four in Ukrainian cities two days ago, and stalled US-brokered peace talks. Recent diplomatic efforts—such as Florida meetings on March 22 and Geneva sessions in February—have yielded no breakthroughs on core issues like territorial concessions in Donetsk, demilitarized zone control, and postwar security guarantees, with Ukraine rejecting Moscow's demands. Front-line escalations continue amid a situational pause in negotiations, leaving no viable path to agreement before the deadline. Only an unforeseen late-breaking diplomatic summit or unilateral concession could shift odds at this stage.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
マーケット開始日： Jul 10, 2025, 12:43 PM ET
音量
$29,052,178終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jul 10, 2025, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Traders' near-unanimous 99.9% implied probability on no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31 stems from persistent military actions, including Russian strikes killing four in Ukrainian cities two days ago, and stalled US-brokered peace talks. Recent diplomatic efforts—such as Florida meetings on March 22 and Geneva sessions in February—have yielded no breakthroughs on core issues like territorial concessions in Donetsk, demilitarized zone control, and postwar security guarantees, with Ukraine rejecting Moscow's demands. Front-line escalations continue amid a situational pause in negotiations, leaving no viable path to agreement before the deadline. Only an unforeseen late-breaking diplomatic summit or unilateral concession could shift odds at this stage.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
音量
$29,052,178終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Jul 10, 2025, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Traders' near-unanimous 99.9% implied probability on no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31 stems from persistent military actions, including Russian strikes killing four in Ukrainian cities two days ago, and stalled US-brokered peace talks. Recent diplomatic efforts—such as Florida meetings on March 22 and Geneva sessions in February—have yielded no breakthroughs on core issues like territorial concessions in Donetsk, demilitarized zone control, and postwar security guarantees, with Ukraine rejecting Moscow's demands. Front-line escalations continue amid a situational pause in negotiations, leaving no viable path to agreement before the deadline. Only an unforeseen late-breaking diplomatic summit or unilateral concession could shift odds at this stage.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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