Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 85.5% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026, driven by stalled U.S.-brokered peace talks amid Russia's launch of a spring offensive last week, featuring battalion-sized assaults near Sloviansk and intensified drone-missile strikes totaling nearly 1,000 munitions over March 23-24. Ukrainian counteradvances near Kupyansk and Zaporizhzhia have slowed Russian progress, but neither side shows de-escalation signals, with Zelenskyy rejecting territorial concessions demanded by Moscow since early March. Middle East tensions, including potential U.S. aid diversions, further sideline diplomacy, underscoring significant barriers to any near-term halt in hostilities despite occasional prisoner swaps.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$3,645,040 Vol.
$3,645,040 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
はい
$3,645,040 Vol.
$3,645,040 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 85.5% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026, driven by stalled U.S.-brokered peace talks amid Russia's launch of a spring offensive last week, featuring battalion-sized assaults near Sloviansk and intensified drone-missile strikes totaling nearly 1,000 munitions over March 23-24. Ukrainian counteradvances near Kupyansk and Zaporizhzhia have slowed Russian progress, but neither side shows de-escalation signals, with Zelenskyy rejecting territorial concessions demanded by Moscow since early March. Middle East tensions, including potential U.S. aid diversions, further sideline diplomacy, underscoring significant barriers to any near-term halt in hostilities despite occasional prisoner swaps.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
マーケット開始日： Jan 13, 2026, 2:18 PM ET
音量
$3,645,040終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 13, 2026, 2:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 85.5% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026, driven by stalled U.S.-brokered peace talks amid Russia's launch of a spring offensive last week, featuring battalion-sized assaults near Sloviansk and intensified drone-missile strikes totaling nearly 1,000 munitions over March 23-24. Ukrainian counteradvances near Kupyansk and Zaporizhzhia have slowed Russian progress, but neither side shows de-escalation signals, with Zelenskyy rejecting territorial concessions demanded by Moscow since early March. Middle East tensions, including potential U.S. aid diversions, further sideline diplomacy, underscoring significant barriers to any near-term halt in hostilities despite occasional prisoner swaps.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
音量
$3,645,040終了日
Jun 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Jan 13, 2026, 2:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 85.5% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026, driven by stalled U.S.-brokered peace talks amid Russia's launch of a spring offensive last week, featuring battalion-sized assaults near Sloviansk and intensified drone-missile strikes totaling nearly 1,000 munitions over March 23-24. Ukrainian counteradvances near Kupyansk and Zaporizhzhia have slowed Russian progress, but neither side shows de-escalation signals, with Zelenskyy rejecting territorial concessions demanded by Moscow since early March. Middle East tensions, including potential U.S. aid diversions, further sideline diplomacy, underscoring significant barriers to any near-term halt in hostilities despite occasional prisoner swaps.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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