President Trump's announcement yesterday of a U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, effective May 9-11 and including a 1,000-prisoner swap each, has driven trader consensus to virtual certainty for a broader halt in hostilities by June 30. This builds on a February U.S. deadline for a full peace agreement, signaling intensified diplomatic pressure amid de-escalation efforts during Russia's Victory Day. Prior short truces have faltered, but the Trump administration's direct mediation reflects skin-in-the-game optimism from the wisdom of crowds. Realistic risks remain: mutual accusations of violations, stalled negotiations, escalation via airstrikes or troop movements, or breakdowns in bilateral talks could derail progress before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$60,668,118 Vol.
$60,668,118 Vol.
2026/06/30
はい
$60,668,118 Vol.
$60,668,118 Vol.
2026/06/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.President Trump's announcement yesterday of a U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, effective May 9-11 and including a 1,000-prisoner swap each, has driven trader consensus to virtual certainty for a broader halt in hostilities by June 30. This builds on a February U.S. deadline for a full peace agreement, signaling intensified diplomatic pressure amid de-escalation efforts during Russia's Victory Day. Prior short truces have faltered, but the Trump administration's direct mediation reflects skin-in-the-game optimism from the wisdom of crowds. Realistic risks remain: mutual accusations of violations, stalled negotiations, escalation via airstrikes or troop movements, or breakdowns in bilateral talks could derail progress before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
マーケット開始日： Jan 13, 2026, 2:18 PM ET
音量
$60,668,118終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Jan 13, 2026, 2:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: はい
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: はい
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.President Trump's announcement yesterday of a U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, effective May 9-11 and including a 1,000-prisoner swap each, has driven trader consensus to virtual certainty for a broader halt in hostilities by June 30. This builds on a February U.S. deadline for a full peace agreement, signaling intensified diplomatic pressure amid de-escalation efforts during Russia's Victory Day. Prior short truces have faltered, but the Trump administration's direct mediation reflects skin-in-the-game optimism from the wisdom of crowds. Realistic risks remain: mutual accusations of violations, stalled negotiations, escalation via airstrikes or troop movements, or breakdowns in bilateral talks could derail progress before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
音量
$60,668,118終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Jan 13, 2026, 2:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: はい
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: はい
President Trump's announcement yesterday of a U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, effective May 9-11 and including a 1,000-prisoner swap each, has driven trader consensus to virtual certainty for a broader halt in hostilities by June 30. This builds on a February U.S. deadline for a full peace agreement, signaling intensified diplomatic pressure amid de-escalation efforts during Russia's Victory Day. Prior short truces have faltered, but the Trump administration's direct mediation reflects skin-in-the-game optimism from the wisdom of crowds. Realistic risks remain: mutual accusations of violations, stalled negotiations, escalation via airstrikes or troop movements, or breakdowns in bilateral talks could derail progress before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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