Iran's rejection of a US-proposed 48-hour ceasefire on April 3, amid day 36 of US-Israeli strikes and reduced Iranian missile fire, highlights active but deadlocked diplomatic efforts including regional mediation attempts, while Russia-Ukraine talks remain paused per Moscow's statements citing the US-Iran conflict, with Zelensky's recent Easter truce offer dismissed amid Russian escalatory strikes killing eight. No in-person negotiations have advanced in weeks, as Kyiv refuses territorial concessions and Russia claims battlefield gains like Luhansk control. Traders' 87.5% consensus on "No" reflects nearer-term de-escalation prospects in the hotter US-Iran theater versus entrenched Russia-Ukraine stalemate, though late breakthroughs or further rejections could shift odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$59,185 Vol.
$59,185 Vol.
$59,185 Vol.
$59,185 Vol.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine, before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran.
This market will resolve to "No" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine.
If neither ceasefire agreement is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
If both ceasefire agreements are announced on the same calendar date, the market will resolve based on which announcement occurred earlier in ET time.
1. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
If the agreement is officially reached, it will qualify regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
2. US x Iran ceasefire
A qualifying ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached, it will qualify regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Iran's rejection of a US-proposed 48-hour ceasefire on April 3, amid day 36 of US-Israeli strikes and reduced Iranian missile fire, highlights active but deadlocked diplomatic efforts including regional mediation attempts, while Russia-Ukraine talks remain paused per Moscow's statements citing the US-Iran conflict, with Zelensky's recent Easter truce offer dismissed amid Russian escalatory strikes killing eight. No in-person negotiations have advanced in weeks, as Kyiv refuses territorial concessions and Russia claims battlefield gains like Luhansk control. Traders' 87.5% consensus on "No" reflects nearer-term de-escalation prospects in the hotter US-Iran theater versus entrenched Russia-Ukraine stalemate, though late breakthroughs or further rejections could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine, before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran.
This market will resolve to "No" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine.
If neither ceasefire agreement is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
If both ceasefire agreements are announced on the same calendar date, the market will resolve based on which announcement occurred earlier in ET time.
1. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
If the agreement is officially reached, it will qualify regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
2. US x Iran ceasefire
A qualifying ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached, it will qualify regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
This market will resolve to "No" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine.
If neither ceasefire agreement is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
If both ceasefire agreements are announced on the same calendar date, the market will resolve based on which announcement occurred earlier in ET time.
1. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
If the agreement is officially reached, it will qualify regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
2. US x Iran ceasefire
A qualifying ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached, it will qualify regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
マーケット開始日： Mar 13, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
音量
$59,185マーケット開始日
Mar 13, 2026, 3:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine, before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran.
This market will resolve to "No" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine.
If neither ceasefire agreement is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
If both ceasefire agreements are announced on the same calendar date, the market will resolve based on which announcement occurred earlier in ET time.
1. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
If the agreement is officially reached, it will qualify regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
2. US x Iran ceasefire
A qualifying ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached, it will qualify regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Iran's rejection of a US-proposed 48-hour ceasefire on April 3, amid day 36 of US-Israeli strikes and reduced Iranian missile fire, highlights active but deadlocked diplomatic efforts including regional mediation attempts, while Russia-Ukraine talks remain paused per Moscow's statements citing the US-Iran conflict, with Zelensky's recent Easter truce offer dismissed amid Russian escalatory strikes killing eight. No in-person negotiations have advanced in weeks, as Kyiv refuses territorial concessions and Russia claims battlefield gains like Luhansk control. Traders' 87.5% consensus on "No" reflects nearer-term de-escalation prospects in the hotter US-Iran theater versus entrenched Russia-Ukraine stalemate, though late breakthroughs or further rejections could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine, before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran.
This market will resolve to "No" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine.
If neither ceasefire agreement is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
If both ceasefire agreements are announced on the same calendar date, the market will resolve based on which announcement occurred earlier in ET time.
1. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
If the agreement is officially reached, it will qualify regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
2. US x Iran ceasefire
A qualifying ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached, it will qualify regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
This market will resolve to "No" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine.
If neither ceasefire agreement is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
If both ceasefire agreements are announced on the same calendar date, the market will resolve based on which announcement occurred earlier in ET time.
1. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
If the agreement is officially reached, it will qualify regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
2. US x Iran ceasefire
A qualifying ceasefire agreement requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached, it will qualify regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
音量
$59,185マーケット開始日
Mar 13, 2026, 3:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's rejection of a US-proposed 48-hour ceasefire on April 3, amid day 36 of US-Israeli strikes and reduced Iranian missile fire, highlights active but deadlocked diplomatic efforts including regional mediation attempts, while Russia-Ukraine talks remain paused per Moscow's statements citing the US-Iran conflict, with Zelensky's recent Easter truce offer dismissed amid Russian escalatory strikes killing eight. No in-person negotiations have advanced in weeks, as Kyiv refuses territorial concessions and Russia claims battlefield gains like Luhansk control. Traders' 87.5% consensus on "No" reflects nearer-term de-escalation prospects in the hotter US-Iran theater versus entrenched Russia-Ukraine stalemate, though late breakthroughs or further rejections could shift odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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