Trader consensus reflects near-certainty against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, pricing "No" at 96.6%, driven by stalled U.S.-backed peace talks and Russia's spring offensive launch. Ukrainian-U.S. delegations concluded Florida discussions on March 22 without progress, amid reports of Moscow demanding territorial concessions from Donetsk that Kyiv rejects. Russian forces conducted nearly 1,000 drone and missile strikes March 23-24 and mechanized assaults signaling escalation, per Institute for the Study of War assessments through March 25. Ongoing front-line clashes, mutual territorial claims, and diverted U.S. aid considerations to the Middle East reinforce expectations of prolonged fighting. Realistic shifts could stem from surprise bilateral negotiations or major diplomatic pressure, though none are scheduled before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日2026年4月30日までにロシアxウクライナの停戦？
2026年4月30日までにロシアxウクライナの停戦？
はい
$1,028,136 Vol.
$1,028,136 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
はい
$1,028,136 Vol.
$1,028,136 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, pricing "No" at 96.6%, driven by stalled U.S.-backed peace talks and Russia's spring offensive launch. Ukrainian-U.S. delegations concluded Florida discussions on March 22 without progress, amid reports of Moscow demanding territorial concessions from Donetsk that Kyiv rejects. Russian forces conducted nearly 1,000 drone and missile strikes March 23-24 and mechanized assaults signaling escalation, per Institute for the Study of War assessments through March 25. Ongoing front-line clashes, mutual territorial claims, and diverted U.S. aid considerations to the Middle East reinforce expectations of prolonged fighting. Realistic shifts could stem from surprise bilateral negotiations or major diplomatic pressure, though none are scheduled before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
マーケット開始日： Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
音量
$1,028,136終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus reflects near-certainty against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, pricing "No" at 96.6%, driven by stalled U.S.-backed peace talks and Russia's spring offensive launch. Ukrainian-U.S. delegations concluded Florida discussions on March 22 without progress, amid reports of Moscow demanding territorial concessions from Donetsk that Kyiv rejects. Russian forces conducted nearly 1,000 drone and missile strikes March 23-24 and mechanized assaults signaling escalation, per Institute for the Study of War assessments through March 25. Ongoing front-line clashes, mutual territorial claims, and diverted U.S. aid considerations to the Middle East reinforce expectations of prolonged fighting. Realistic shifts could stem from surprise bilateral negotiations or major diplomatic pressure, though none are scheduled before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
音量
$1,028,136終了日
Apr 30, 2026マーケット開始日
Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects near-certainty against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, pricing "No" at 96.6%, driven by stalled U.S.-backed peace talks and Russia's spring offensive launch. Ukrainian-U.S. delegations concluded Florida discussions on March 22 without progress, amid reports of Moscow demanding territorial concessions from Donetsk that Kyiv rejects. Russian forces conducted nearly 1,000 drone and missile strikes March 23-24 and mechanized assaults signaling escalation, per Institute for the Study of War assessments through March 25. Ongoing front-line clashes, mutual territorial claims, and diverted U.S. aid considerations to the Middle East reinforce expectations of prolonged fighting. Realistic shifts could stem from surprise bilateral negotiations or major diplomatic pressure, though none are scheduled before the deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問