Trader consensus reflects a 68.5% implied probability of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026, driven by entrenched military escalation and irreconcilable demands in recent weeks. Russian forces pressed advances in Donetsk near Pokrovsk amid reports of North Korean troop involvement, while Ukraine conducted drone strikes on Russian airfields and Crimea infrastructure, signaling no de-escalation. President Putin's November statements reiterated requirements for Ukrainian demilitarization and recognition of annexed territories like Crimea and Donbas, rejected outright by President Zelenskyy, who demands full withdrawal. The Switzerland peace summit in June yielded no progress without Russian participation, and U.S. President-elect Trump's post-election pledges for rapid resolution remain vague amid historical negotiation failures like Istanbul 2022. No talks are scheduled, prolonging the stalemate.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$12,265,068 Vol.
$12,265,068 Vol.
はい
$12,265,068 Vol.
$12,265,068 Vol.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
マーケット開始日： Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
リゾルバー
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
リゾルバー
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus reflects a 68.5% implied probability of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026, driven by entrenched military escalation and irreconcilable demands in recent weeks. Russian forces pressed advances in Donetsk near Pokrovsk amid reports of North Korean troop involvement, while Ukraine conducted drone strikes on Russian airfields and Crimea infrastructure, signaling no de-escalation. President Putin's November statements reiterated requirements for Ukrainian demilitarization and recognition of annexed territories like Crimea and Donbas, rejected outright by President Zelenskyy, who demands full withdrawal. The Switzerland peace summit in June yielded no progress without Russian participation, and U.S. President-elect Trump's post-election pledges for rapid resolution remain vague amid historical negotiation failures like Istanbul 2022. No talks are scheduled, prolonging the stalemate.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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