Market icon
世界·ポーランド

ロシアは北大西洋条約機構（ NATO ）加盟国を侵略するだろうか… ？

Market icon
世界·ポーランド

ロシアは北大西洋条約機構（ NATO ）加盟国を侵略するだろうか… ？

$3,692,392 Vol.

Dec 31, 2025
Polymarket

$3,692,392 Vol.

Polymarket

2026年6月30日

$2,242,600 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent Ukrainian drone incursions into Latvia and Estonia from Russian territory, combined with NATO jets scrambling over Russia's massive drone and missile barrage near Polish and Romanian borders, highlight escalating hybrid threats along NATO's eastern flank. Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže stated Russia lacks capacity for a Baltic attack by 2027, countering warnings from Lithuanian intelligence of Moscow expanding military units near NATO borders—potentially enabling conflict within six years if Western sanctions lift. Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov threatened strikes on Lithuania and Poland amid Ukraine war attrition. NATO reinforces defenses with new bases and exercises, prioritizing gray-zone deterrence over expectations of direct invasion soon.

Recent Ukrainian drone incursions into Latvia and Estonia from Russian territory, combined with NATO jets scrambling over Russia's massive drone and missile barrage near Polish and Romanian borders, highlight escalating hybrid threats along NATO's eastern flank. Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže stated Russia lacks capacity for a Baltic attack by 2027, countering warnings from Lithuanian intelligence of Moscow expanding military units near NATO borders—potentially enabling conflict within six years if Western sanctions lift. Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov threatened strikes on Lithuania and Poland amid Ukraine war attrition. NATO reinforces defenses with new bases and exercises, prioritizing gray-zone deterrence over expectations of direct invasion soon.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent Ukrainian drone incursions into Latvia and Estonia from Russian territory, combined with NATO jets scrambling over Russia's massive drone and missile barrage near Polish and Romanian borders, highlight escalating hybrid threats along NATO's eastern flank. Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže stated Russia lacks capacity for a Baltic attack by 2027, countering warnings from Lithuanian intelligence of Moscow expanding military units near NATO borders—potentially enabling conflict within six years if Western sanctions lift. Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov threatened strikes on Lithuania and Poland amid Ukraine war attrition. NATO reinforces defenses with new bases and exercises, prioritizing gray-zone deterrence over expectations of direct invasion soon.

Recent Ukrainian drone incursions into Latvia and Estonia from Russian territory, combined with NATO jets scrambling over Russia's massive drone and missile barrage near Polish and Romanian borders, highlight escalating hybrid threats along NATO's eastern flank. Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže stated Russia lacks capacity for a Baltic attack by 2027, countering warnings from Lithuanian intelligence of Moscow expanding military units near NATO borders—potentially enabling conflict within six years if Western sanctions lift. Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov threatened strikes on Lithuania and Poland amid Ukraine war attrition. NATO reinforces defenses with new bases and exercises, prioritizing gray-zone deterrence over expectations of direct invasion soon.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「ロシアは北大西洋条約機構（ NATO ）加盟国を侵略するだろうか… ？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「2026年6月30日」で5%、次いで「2025年12月31日」が0%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、5¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に5%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「ロシアは北大西洋条約機構（ NATO ）加盟国を侵略するだろうか… ？」は$3.7 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（May 28, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「ロシアは北大西洋条約機構（ NATO ）加盟国を侵略するだろうか… ？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「ロシアは北大西洋条約機構（ NATO ）加盟国を侵略するだろうか… ？」の現在のリーダーは「2026年6月30日」でわずか5%、「2025年12月31日」が0%で僅差です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「ロシアは北大西洋条約機構（ NATO ）加盟国を侵略するだろうか… ？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。