The U.S. has maintained a nuclear testing moratorium since its last underground test in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program's computer simulations and subcritical experiments to ensure warhead reliability without violating the voluntary pause or the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Recent trader sentiment reflects ongoing DoD and congressional debates sparked by China's suspected nuclear tests and arsenal growth—highlighted in a March 2024 Wall Street Journal report—alongside Russia's suspension of New START inspections, though no administration official has signaled resumption plans amid diplomatic sensitivities. Barriers include NNSA funding priorities for modernization, international backlash risks, and Biden administration continuity on arms control. Upcoming fiscal 2025 National Defense Authorization Act votes could influence policy, but no hearings are scheduled imminently.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$574,628 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
2026年3月31日
<1%
$574,628 Vol.
2026年3月31日
$280,532 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has maintained a nuclear testing moratorium since its last underground test in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program's computer simulations and subcritical experiments to ensure warhead reliability without violating the voluntary pause or the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Recent trader sentiment reflects ongoing DoD and congressional debates sparked by China's suspected nuclear tests and arsenal growth—highlighted in a March 2024 Wall Street Journal report—alongside Russia's suspension of New START inspections, though no administration official has signaled resumption plans amid diplomatic sensitivities. Barriers include NNSA funding priorities for modernization, international backlash risks, and Biden administration continuity on arms control. Upcoming fiscal 2025 National Defense Authorization Act votes could influence policy, but no hearings are scheduled imminently.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
音量
$574,628終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has maintained a nuclear testing moratorium since its last underground test in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program's computer simulations and subcritical experiments to ensure warhead reliability without violating the voluntary pause or the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Recent trader sentiment reflects ongoing DoD and congressional debates sparked by China's suspected nuclear tests and arsenal growth—highlighted in a March 2024 Wall Street Journal report—alongside Russia's suspension of New START inspections, though no administration official has signaled resumption plans amid diplomatic sensitivities. Barriers include NNSA funding priorities for modernization, international backlash risks, and Biden administration continuity on arms control. Upcoming fiscal 2025 National Defense Authorization Act votes could influence policy, but no hearings are scheduled imminently.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$574,628終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. has maintained a nuclear testing moratorium since its last underground test in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program's computer simulations and subcritical experiments to ensure warhead reliability without violating the voluntary pause or the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. Recent trader sentiment reflects ongoing DoD and congressional debates sparked by China's suspected nuclear tests and arsenal growth—highlighted in a March 2024 Wall Street Journal report—alongside Russia's suspension of New START inspections, though no administration official has signaled resumption plans amid diplomatic sensitivities. Barriers include NNSA funding priorities for modernization, international backlash risks, and Biden administration continuity on arms control. Upcoming fiscal 2025 National Defense Authorization Act votes could influence policy, but no hearings are scheduled imminently.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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