The U.S. maintains a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing imposed in 1992, adhering to the spirit of the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) while certifying its nuclear stockpile through computer modeling, hydrodynamic tests, and subcritical experiments conducted by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) at the Nevada National Security Site. No full-yield underground tests have occurred in over three decades, with the most recent subcritical effort, "Celeste," completed in late August 2024 to gather data on plutonium behavior without fission. Geopolitical pressures from Russia's CTBT withdrawal and China's arsenal expansion have fueled congressional debates on modernization needs, but President Biden's administration shows no intent to resume testing. Traders should watch post-election policy signals, NNSA announcements, or executive orders, as a shift could come via Department of Energy directives amid nuclear posture reviews.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$582,445 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
2026年3月31日
<1%
$582,445 Vol.
2026年3月31日
$288,349 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. maintains a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing imposed in 1992, adhering to the spirit of the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) while certifying its nuclear stockpile through computer modeling, hydrodynamic tests, and subcritical experiments conducted by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) at the Nevada National Security Site. No full-yield underground tests have occurred in over three decades, with the most recent subcritical effort, "Celeste," completed in late August 2024 to gather data on plutonium behavior without fission. Geopolitical pressures from Russia's CTBT withdrawal and China's arsenal expansion have fueled congressional debates on modernization needs, but President Biden's administration shows no intent to resume testing. Traders should watch post-election policy signals, NNSA announcements, or executive orders, as a shift could come via Department of Energy directives amid nuclear posture reviews.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
音量
$582,445終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. maintains a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing imposed in 1992, adhering to the spirit of the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) while certifying its nuclear stockpile through computer modeling, hydrodynamic tests, and subcritical experiments conducted by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) at the Nevada National Security Site. No full-yield underground tests have occurred in over three decades, with the most recent subcritical effort, "Celeste," completed in late August 2024 to gather data on plutonium behavior without fission. Geopolitical pressures from Russia's CTBT withdrawal and China's arsenal expansion have fueled congressional debates on modernization needs, but President Biden's administration shows no intent to resume testing. Traders should watch post-election policy signals, NNSA announcements, or executive orders, as a shift could come via Department of Energy directives amid nuclear posture reviews.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$582,445終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. maintains a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing imposed in 1992, adhering to the spirit of the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) while certifying its nuclear stockpile through computer modeling, hydrodynamic tests, and subcritical experiments conducted by the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) at the Nevada National Security Site. No full-yield underground tests have occurred in over three decades, with the most recent subcritical effort, "Celeste," completed in late August 2024 to gather data on plutonium behavior without fission. Geopolitical pressures from Russia's CTBT withdrawal and China's arsenal expansion have fueled congressional debates on modernization needs, but President Biden's administration shows no intent to resume testing. Traders should watch post-election policy signals, NNSA announcements, or executive orders, as a shift could come via Department of Energy directives amid nuclear posture reviews.
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