The U.S. has upheld a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its final underground test in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program's advanced simulations, subcritical experiments, and laser facilities like the National Ignition Facility to maintain warhead reliability without full-yield detonations. No official announcements from the Department of Energy or National Nuclear Security Administration indicate plans to resume testing, despite recent congressional efforts—such as a July 2024 House Armed Services Committee markup of the National Defense Authorization Act including provisions to authorize tests if adversaries like Russia or China conduct them—which stalled without passage. Geopolitical tensions, including Russia's CTBT withdrawal and China's alleged activities, fuel debate, but international norms and ratification hurdles for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty sustain caution. Traders eye potential shifts post-2024 election inauguration or fiscal 2025 budget votes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$582,452 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
2026年3月31日
<1%
$582,452 Vol.
2026年3月31日
$288,356 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has upheld a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its final underground test in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program's advanced simulations, subcritical experiments, and laser facilities like the National Ignition Facility to maintain warhead reliability without full-yield detonations. No official announcements from the Department of Energy or National Nuclear Security Administration indicate plans to resume testing, despite recent congressional efforts—such as a July 2024 House Armed Services Committee markup of the National Defense Authorization Act including provisions to authorize tests if adversaries like Russia or China conduct them—which stalled without passage. Geopolitical tensions, including Russia's CTBT withdrawal and China's alleged activities, fuel debate, but international norms and ratification hurdles for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty sustain caution. Traders eye potential shifts post-2024 election inauguration or fiscal 2025 budget votes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
音量
$582,452終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has upheld a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its final underground test in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program's advanced simulations, subcritical experiments, and laser facilities like the National Ignition Facility to maintain warhead reliability without full-yield detonations. No official announcements from the Department of Energy or National Nuclear Security Administration indicate plans to resume testing, despite recent congressional efforts—such as a July 2024 House Armed Services Committee markup of the National Defense Authorization Act including provisions to authorize tests if adversaries like Russia or China conduct them—which stalled without passage. Geopolitical tensions, including Russia's CTBT withdrawal and China's alleged activities, fuel debate, but international norms and ratification hurdles for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty sustain caution. Traders eye potential shifts post-2024 election inauguration or fiscal 2025 budget votes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$582,452終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. has upheld a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since its final underground test in 1992 at the Nevada National Security Site, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program's advanced simulations, subcritical experiments, and laser facilities like the National Ignition Facility to maintain warhead reliability without full-yield detonations. No official announcements from the Department of Energy or National Nuclear Security Administration indicate plans to resume testing, despite recent congressional efforts—such as a July 2024 House Armed Services Committee markup of the National Defense Authorization Act including provisions to authorize tests if adversaries like Russia or China conduct them—which stalled without passage. Geopolitical tensions, including Russia's CTBT withdrawal and China's alleged activities, fuel debate, but international norms and ratification hurdles for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty sustain caution. Traders eye potential shifts post-2024 election inauguration or fiscal 2025 budget votes.
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