The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, sustained by the Stockpile Stewardship Program's simulations and subcritical experiments at sites like Nevada National Security Site. President Trump's administration weighed resumption in early 2026 amid concerns over Russian and Chinese nuclear activities, but March statements from arms control officials confirmed no decisions on underground tests or protocols. The CTBTO executive secretary's April 29 warning to the U.S. and Russia underscored risks of unraveling global non-proliferation norms. Absent funding shifts in congressional appropriations or geopolitical escalation, trader consensus assigns low implied probabilities through year-end, with substantial diplomatic backlash and technical hurdles as key barriers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$658,461 Vol.
2026/06/30
2026年6月30日
3%
2026年9月30日
6%
2026年12月31日
10%
$658,461 Vol.
2026年6月30日
$33,298 Vol.
3%
2026年9月30日
$5,552 Vol.
6%
2026年12月31日
$9,392 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, sustained by the Stockpile Stewardship Program's simulations and subcritical experiments at sites like Nevada National Security Site. President Trump's administration weighed resumption in early 2026 amid concerns over Russian and Chinese nuclear activities, but March statements from arms control officials confirmed no decisions on underground tests or protocols. The CTBTO executive secretary's April 29 warning to the U.S. and Russia underscored risks of unraveling global non-proliferation norms. Absent funding shifts in congressional appropriations or geopolitical escalation, trader consensus assigns low implied probabilities through year-end, with substantial diplomatic backlash and technical hurdles as key barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
音量
$658,461終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, sustained by the Stockpile Stewardship Program's simulations and subcritical experiments at sites like Nevada National Security Site. President Trump's administration weighed resumption in early 2026 amid concerns over Russian and Chinese nuclear activities, but March statements from arms control officials confirmed no decisions on underground tests or protocols. The CTBTO executive secretary's April 29 warning to the U.S. and Russia underscored risks of unraveling global non-proliferation norms. Absent funding shifts in congressional appropriations or geopolitical escalation, trader consensus assigns low implied probabilities through year-end, with substantial diplomatic backlash and technical hurdles as key barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$658,461終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. has observed a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, sustained by the Stockpile Stewardship Program's simulations and subcritical experiments at sites like Nevada National Security Site. President Trump's administration weighed resumption in early 2026 amid concerns over Russian and Chinese nuclear activities, but March statements from arms control officials confirmed no decisions on underground tests or protocols. The CTBTO executive secretary's April 29 warning to the U.S. and Russia underscored risks of unraveling global non-proliferation norms. Absent funding shifts in congressional appropriations or geopolitical escalation, trader consensus assigns low implied probabilities through year-end, with substantial diplomatic backlash and technical hurdles as key barriers.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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