Recent statements from President Trump indicating the U.S. could resume explosive nuclear testing on an equal basis with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield tests by Beijing, have shaped trader views on near-term U.S. nuclear tests. Diplomatic talks pressing China over suspected violations of the test moratorium and infrastructure expansions at sites like Lop Nur continue alongside U.S. advances in the W93 warhead program and non-nuclear subcritical experiments at the Nevada National Security Site for detection capabilities. The U.S. has maintained its voluntary moratorium since 1992, relying on science-based stockpile stewardship, and any shift to full-yield testing would require overcoming technical, environmental, and international constraints within tight timelines. Low implied probabilities in the market reflect the significant procedural and diplomatic hurdles despite the heightened rhetoric.