**Trader sentiment on U.S. nuclear explosive testing by late 2026 remains subdued, with implied probabilities at 1-5% across near-term dates.** President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield violations by Beijing (including a claimed 2020 event at Lop Nur), briefly elevated concerns about ending the 1992 moratorium at the Nevada National Security Site. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and administration statements quickly clarified that referenced activities involve subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and delivery-system evaluations rather than yield-producing detonations. No full-scale nuclear explosive test has occurred, and officials continue to rely on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for certification. Upcoming budget decisions, congressional debates over testing prohibitions, and any new intelligence on foreign activities could influence positioning, though current signals point to sustained restraint through diplomatic signaling rather than operational resumption.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$795,287 Vol.
2026/09/30
2026年9月30日
1%
2026年12月31日
5%
$795,287 Vol.
2026年9月30日
$57,555 Vol.
1%
2026年12月31日
$76,920 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Trader sentiment on U.S. nuclear explosive testing by late 2026 remains subdued, with implied probabilities at 1-5% across near-term dates.** President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield violations by Beijing (including a claimed 2020 event at Lop Nur), briefly elevated concerns about ending the 1992 moratorium at the Nevada National Security Site. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and administration statements quickly clarified that referenced activities involve subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and delivery-system evaluations rather than yield-producing detonations. No full-scale nuclear explosive test has occurred, and officials continue to rely on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for certification. Upcoming budget decisions, congressional debates over testing prohibitions, and any new intelligence on foreign activities could influence positioning, though current signals point to sustained restraint through diplomatic signaling rather than operational resumption.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
音量
$795,287終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Trader sentiment on U.S. nuclear explosive testing by late 2026 remains subdued, with implied probabilities at 1-5% across near-term dates.** President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield violations by Beijing (including a claimed 2020 event at Lop Nur), briefly elevated concerns about ending the 1992 moratorium at the Nevada National Security Site. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and administration statements quickly clarified that referenced activities involve subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and delivery-system evaluations rather than yield-producing detonations. No full-scale nuclear explosive test has occurred, and officials continue to rely on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for certification. Upcoming budget decisions, congressional debates over testing prohibitions, and any new intelligence on foreign activities could influence positioning, though current signals point to sustained restraint through diplomatic signaling rather than operational resumption.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$795,287終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...**Trader sentiment on U.S. nuclear explosive testing by late 2026 remains subdued, with implied probabilities at 1-5% across near-term dates.** President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield violations by Beijing (including a claimed 2020 event at Lop Nur), briefly elevated concerns about ending the 1992 moratorium at the Nevada National Security Site. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and administration statements quickly clarified that referenced activities involve subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and delivery-system evaluations rather than yield-producing detonations. No full-scale nuclear explosive test has occurred, and officials continue to rely on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for certification. Upcoming budget decisions, congressional debates over testing prohibitions, and any new intelligence on foreign activities could influence positioning, though current signals point to sustained restraint through diplomatic signaling rather than operational resumption.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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