President Trump’s October 2025 statements directing nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China briefly elevated trader attention to the possibility of a U.S. explosive test ending the 1992 moratorium. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials framed the directive as non-explosive activities such as simulations and delivery-system checks, while technical assessments indicated that full underground test readiness at the Nevada National Security Site would require months to years of preparation and funding. Concerns over responses from Russia and China, combined with continued reliance on stockpile stewardship programs and the absence of any confirmatory actions through May 2026, have kept implied probabilities for a test by year-end below 10 percent. Budget requests for test readiness and ongoing arms-control discussions remain the principal variables that could alter near-term sentiment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$666,675 Vol.
2026/06/30
2026年6月30日
3%
2026年9月30日
5%
2026年12月31日
9%
$666,675 Vol.
2026年6月30日
$39,932 Vol.
3%
2026年9月30日
$6,052 Vol.
5%
2026年12月31日
$10,472 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 statements directing nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China briefly elevated trader attention to the possibility of a U.S. explosive test ending the 1992 moratorium. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials framed the directive as non-explosive activities such as simulations and delivery-system checks, while technical assessments indicated that full underground test readiness at the Nevada National Security Site would require months to years of preparation and funding. Concerns over responses from Russia and China, combined with continued reliance on stockpile stewardship programs and the absence of any confirmatory actions through May 2026, have kept implied probabilities for a test by year-end below 10 percent. Budget requests for test readiness and ongoing arms-control discussions remain the principal variables that could alter near-term sentiment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
音量
$666,675終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 statements directing nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China briefly elevated trader attention to the possibility of a U.S. explosive test ending the 1992 moratorium. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials framed the directive as non-explosive activities such as simulations and delivery-system checks, while technical assessments indicated that full underground test readiness at the Nevada National Security Site would require months to years of preparation and funding. Concerns over responses from Russia and China, combined with continued reliance on stockpile stewardship programs and the absence of any confirmatory actions through May 2026, have kept implied probabilities for a test by year-end below 10 percent. Budget requests for test readiness and ongoing arms-control discussions remain the principal variables that could alter near-term sentiment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$666,675終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump’s October 2025 statements directing nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China briefly elevated trader attention to the possibility of a U.S. explosive test ending the 1992 moratorium. Subsequent clarifications from administration officials framed the directive as non-explosive activities such as simulations and delivery-system checks, while technical assessments indicated that full underground test readiness at the Nevada National Security Site would require months to years of preparation and funding. Concerns over responses from Russia and China, combined with continued reliance on stockpile stewardship programs and the absence of any confirmatory actions through May 2026, have kept implied probabilities for a test by year-end below 10 percent. Budget requests for test readiness and ongoing arms-control discussions remain the principal variables that could alter near-term sentiment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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