The March 31 deadline for Ukraine to sign a peace deal with Russia has passed without any official agreement, anchoring trader consensus at 100% "No" as hostilities persist along the frontline. Recent US-mediated talks in Florida on March 22 concluded without a breakthrough, echoing earlier stalled negotiations where Russia insisted on territorial concessions like Donbas and Ukraine prioritized sovereignty and security guarantees. Verifiable diplomatic signals, including a March 1 report of Moscow tentatively accepting US postwar security proposals, failed to advance to a full treaty amid mutual distrust and ongoing military actions. While late-breaking diplomatic announcements or classified pacts could theoretically prompt market review, public statements from Kyiv and Moscow confirm no deal materialized by the cutoff.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$389,203 Vol.
$389,203 Vol.
2026/03/31
はい
$389,203 Vol.
$389,203 Vol.
2026/03/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The March 31 deadline for Ukraine to sign a peace deal with Russia has passed without any official agreement, anchoring trader consensus at 100% "No" as hostilities persist along the frontline. Recent US-mediated talks in Florida on March 22 concluded without a breakthrough, echoing earlier stalled negotiations where Russia insisted on territorial concessions like Donbas and Ukraine prioritized sovereignty and security guarantees. Verifiable diplomatic signals, including a March 1 report of Moscow tentatively accepting US postwar security proposals, failed to advance to a full treaty amid mutual distrust and ongoing military actions. While late-breaking diplomatic announcements or classified pacts could theoretically prompt market review, public statements from Kyiv and Moscow confirm no deal materialized by the cutoff.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
音量
$389,203終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The March 31 deadline for Ukraine to sign a peace deal with Russia has passed without any official agreement, anchoring trader consensus at 100% "No" as hostilities persist along the frontline. Recent US-mediated talks in Florida on March 22 concluded without a breakthrough, echoing earlier stalled negotiations where Russia insisted on territorial concessions like Donbas and Ukraine prioritized sovereignty and security guarantees. Verifiable diplomatic signals, including a March 1 report of Moscow tentatively accepting US postwar security proposals, failed to advance to a full treaty amid mutual distrust and ongoing military actions. While late-breaking diplomatic announcements or classified pacts could theoretically prompt market review, public statements from Kyiv and Moscow confirm no deal materialized by the cutoff.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$389,203終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
The March 31 deadline for Ukraine to sign a peace deal with Russia has passed without any official agreement, anchoring trader consensus at 100% "No" as hostilities persist along the frontline. Recent US-mediated talks in Florida on March 22 concluded without a breakthrough, echoing earlier stalled negotiations where Russia insisted on territorial concessions like Donbas and Ukraine prioritized sovereignty and security guarantees. Verifiable diplomatic signals, including a March 1 report of Moscow tentatively accepting US postwar security proposals, failed to advance to a full treaty amid mutual distrust and ongoing military actions. While late-breaking diplomatic announcements or classified pacts could theoretically prompt market review, public statements from Kyiv and Moscow confirm no deal materialized by the cutoff.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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