The March 31, 2026, deadline for Ukraine to sign a peace deal with Russia has passed without any official agreement, cementing trader consensus at 100% "No" as no verifiable signing occurred amid ongoing hostilities. Recent trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva in February concluded without breakthrough over Russia's demands for territorial concessions in Donbas and Crimea, while subsequent rounds stalled due to Russia's spring offensive launched in late March and distractions from Middle East escalations. Ukraine-US discussions in Florida on March 22 focused on pressure tactics rather than finalizing terms. With military actions continuing, including Russian infrastructure builds in occupied areas, the wisdom of crowds reflects insurmountable diplomatic gaps; only an unforeseen retroactive announcement or market resolution dispute could alter this outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$386,877 Vol.
$386,877 Vol.
2026/03/31
はい
$386,877 Vol.
$386,877 Vol.
2026/03/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The March 31, 2026, deadline for Ukraine to sign a peace deal with Russia has passed without any official agreement, cementing trader consensus at 100% "No" as no verifiable signing occurred amid ongoing hostilities. Recent trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva in February concluded without breakthrough over Russia's demands for territorial concessions in Donbas and Crimea, while subsequent rounds stalled due to Russia's spring offensive launched in late March and distractions from Middle East escalations. Ukraine-US discussions in Florida on March 22 focused on pressure tactics rather than finalizing terms. With military actions continuing, including Russian infrastructure builds in occupied areas, the wisdom of crowds reflects insurmountable diplomatic gaps; only an unforeseen retroactive announcement or market resolution dispute could alter this outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
音量
$386,877終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てウィンドウ
最終
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The March 31, 2026, deadline for Ukraine to sign a peace deal with Russia has passed without any official agreement, cementing trader consensus at 100% "No" as no verifiable signing occurred amid ongoing hostilities. Recent trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva in February concluded without breakthrough over Russia's demands for territorial concessions in Donbas and Crimea, while subsequent rounds stalled due to Russia's spring offensive launched in late March and distractions from Middle East escalations. Ukraine-US discussions in Florida on March 22 focused on pressure tactics rather than finalizing terms. With military actions continuing, including Russian infrastructure builds in occupied areas, the wisdom of crowds reflects insurmountable diplomatic gaps; only an unforeseen retroactive announcement or market resolution dispute could alter this outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$387,966終了日
2026/03/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てウィンドウ
最終
The March 31, 2026, deadline for Ukraine to sign a peace deal with Russia has passed without any official agreement, cementing trader consensus at 100% "No" as no verifiable signing occurred amid ongoing hostilities. Recent trilateral US-Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva in February concluded without breakthrough over Russia's demands for territorial concessions in Donbas and Crimea, while subsequent rounds stalled due to Russia's spring offensive launched in late March and distractions from Middle East escalations. Ukraine-US discussions in Florida on March 22 focused on pressure tactics rather than finalizing terms. With military actions continuing, including Russian infrastructure builds in occupied areas, the wisdom of crowds reflects insurmountable diplomatic gaps; only an unforeseen retroactive announcement or market resolution dispute could alter this outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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