US-mediated peace talks between Ukraine and Russia remain stalled over irreconcilable demands, including Russia's insistence on Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donbas and iron-clad security guarantees, driving trader consensus to a 74.5% implied probability against a deal before 2027. Zelenskiy claimed on March 25 that the US links postwar guarantees to ceding Donbas—promptly denied by Senator Rubio—while the Kremlin rejected conditioning economic cooperation on a resolution just yesterday. Continued Russian frontline advances, including captures in eastern Ukraine, and a massive drone-missile barrage March 23-24 underscore military escalation, diverting focus amid US priorities on Iran. No breakthrough looms despite intermittent prisoner exchanges and diplomatic overtures.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$182,644 Vol.
$182,644 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
はい
$182,644 Vol.
$182,644 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
US-mediated peace talks between Ukraine and Russia remain stalled over irreconcilable demands, including Russia's insistence on Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donbas and iron-clad security guarantees, driving trader consensus to a 74.5% implied probability against a deal before 2027. Zelenskiy claimed on March 25 that the US links postwar guarantees to ceding Donbas—promptly denied by Senator Rubio—while the Kremlin rejected conditioning economic cooperation on a resolution just yesterday. Continued Russian frontline advances, including captures in eastern Ukraine, and a massive drone-missile barrage March 23-24 underscore military escalation, diverting focus amid US priorities on Iran. No breakthrough looms despite intermittent prisoner exchanges and diplomatic overtures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
音量
$182,644終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
US-mediated peace talks between Ukraine and Russia remain stalled over irreconcilable demands, including Russia's insistence on Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donbas and iron-clad security guarantees, driving trader consensus to a 74.5% implied probability against a deal before 2027. Zelenskiy claimed on March 25 that the US links postwar guarantees to ceding Donbas—promptly denied by Senator Rubio—while the Kremlin rejected conditioning economic cooperation on a resolution just yesterday. Continued Russian frontline advances, including captures in eastern Ukraine, and a massive drone-missile barrage March 23-24 underscore military escalation, diverting focus amid US priorities on Iran. No breakthrough looms despite intermittent prisoner exchanges and diplomatic overtures.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$182,644終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-mediated peace talks between Ukraine and Russia remain stalled over irreconcilable demands, including Russia's insistence on Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donbas and iron-clad security guarantees, driving trader consensus to a 74.5% implied probability against a deal before 2027. Zelenskiy claimed on March 25 that the US links postwar guarantees to ceding Donbas—promptly denied by Senator Rubio—while the Kremlin rejected conditioning economic cooperation on a resolution just yesterday. Continued Russian frontline advances, including captures in eastern Ukraine, and a massive drone-missile barrage March 23-24 underscore military escalation, diverting focus amid US priorities on Iran. No breakthrough looms despite intermittent prisoner exchanges and diplomatic overtures.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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