Trilateral US-mediated peace talks between Ukraine and Russia remain stalled amid Russia's spring offensive in eastern regions and distractions from the Iran conflict, driving trader consensus to a 76% implied probability of no deal before 2027. Recent developments include Ukraine's refusal to cede Donetsk territory without security guarantees—a Kremlin red line—and Zelenskyy's March 22 Florida talks with US envoys yielding only a POW exchange, not diplomatic breakthroughs. Moscow signals readiness for resumption but ties progress to concessions, while ongoing airstrikes and sanctions stalemates underscore entrenched positions. Upcoming meetings could shift dynamics, though historical negotiation pauses and military escalations reinforce skepticism among traders betting on prolonged conflict.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$184,116 Vol.
$184,116 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
はい
$184,116 Vol.
$184,116 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trilateral US-mediated peace talks between Ukraine and Russia remain stalled amid Russia's spring offensive in eastern regions and distractions from the Iran conflict, driving trader consensus to a 76% implied probability of no deal before 2027. Recent developments include Ukraine's refusal to cede Donetsk territory without security guarantees—a Kremlin red line—and Zelenskyy's March 22 Florida talks with US envoys yielding only a POW exchange, not diplomatic breakthroughs. Moscow signals readiness for resumption but ties progress to concessions, while ongoing airstrikes and sanctions stalemates underscore entrenched positions. Upcoming meetings could shift dynamics, though historical negotiation pauses and military escalations reinforce skepticism among traders betting on prolonged conflict.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
音量
$184,116終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trilateral US-mediated peace talks between Ukraine and Russia remain stalled amid Russia's spring offensive in eastern regions and distractions from the Iran conflict, driving trader consensus to a 76% implied probability of no deal before 2027. Recent developments include Ukraine's refusal to cede Donetsk territory without security guarantees—a Kremlin red line—and Zelenskyy's March 22 Florida talks with US envoys yielding only a POW exchange, not diplomatic breakthroughs. Moscow signals readiness for resumption but ties progress to concessions, while ongoing airstrikes and sanctions stalemates underscore entrenched positions. Upcoming meetings could shift dynamics, though historical negotiation pauses and military escalations reinforce skepticism among traders betting on prolonged conflict.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$184,116終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trilateral US-mediated peace talks between Ukraine and Russia remain stalled amid Russia's spring offensive in eastern regions and distractions from the Iran conflict, driving trader consensus to a 76% implied probability of no deal before 2027. Recent developments include Ukraine's refusal to cede Donetsk territory without security guarantees—a Kremlin red line—and Zelenskyy's March 22 Florida talks with US envoys yielding only a POW exchange, not diplomatic breakthroughs. Moscow signals readiness for resumption but ties progress to concessions, while ongoing airstrikes and sanctions stalemates underscore entrenched positions. Upcoming meetings could shift dynamics, though historical negotiation pauses and military escalations reinforce skepticism among traders betting on prolonged conflict.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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