U.S.-mediated trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States have stalled amid Russia's spring offensive launched in late March 2026, which traders view as a major escalation undermining ceasefire prospects before June 30. Diplomatic efforts paused due to the intensifying Iran conflict diverting Western attention, with Kremlin statements expressing hope for resumed negotiations only "as conditions allow" while demanding Ukrainian concessions in Donbas—demands Kyiv rejects. Zelenskiy affirmed readiness for talks but highlighted partners' focus elsewhere, fueling 90.5% trader consensus on "No" as core territorial disputes persist without breakthroughs, recent POW exchanges notwithstanding. Upcoming rounds hinge on de-escalation signals absent so far.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$67,099 Vol.
$67,099 Vol.
2026/06/30
はい
$67,099 Vol.
$67,099 Vol.
2026/06/30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. U.S.-mediated trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States have stalled amid Russia's spring offensive launched in late March 2026, which traders view as a major escalation undermining ceasefire prospects before June 30. Diplomatic efforts paused due to the intensifying Iran conflict diverting Western attention, with Kremlin statements expressing hope for resumed negotiations only "as conditions allow" while demanding Ukrainian concessions in Donbas—demands Kyiv rejects. Zelenskiy affirmed readiness for talks but highlighted partners' focus elsewhere, fueling 90.5% trader consensus on "No" as core territorial disputes persist without breakthroughs, recent POW exchanges notwithstanding. Upcoming rounds hinge on de-escalation signals absent so far.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
音量
$67,099終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. U.S.-mediated trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States have stalled amid Russia's spring offensive launched in late March 2026, which traders view as a major escalation undermining ceasefire prospects before June 30. Diplomatic efforts paused due to the intensifying Iran conflict diverting Western attention, with Kremlin statements expressing hope for resumed negotiations only "as conditions allow" while demanding Ukrainian concessions in Donbas—demands Kyiv rejects. Zelenskiy affirmed readiness for talks but highlighted partners' focus elsewhere, fueling 90.5% trader consensus on "No" as core territorial disputes persist without breakthroughs, recent POW exchanges notwithstanding. Upcoming rounds hinge on de-escalation signals absent so far.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$67,099終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S.-mediated trilateral talks between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States have stalled amid Russia's spring offensive launched in late March 2026, which traders view as a major escalation undermining ceasefire prospects before June 30. Diplomatic efforts paused due to the intensifying Iran conflict diverting Western attention, with Kremlin statements expressing hope for resumed negotiations only "as conditions allow" while demanding Ukrainian concessions in Donbas—demands Kyiv rejects. Zelenskiy affirmed readiness for talks but highlighted partners' focus elsewhere, fueling 90.5% trader consensus on "No" as core territorial disputes persist without breakthroughs, recent POW exchanges notwithstanding. Upcoming rounds hinge on de-escalation signals absent so far.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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